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<blockquote data-quote="EzekielRaiden" data-source="post: 9678275" data-attributes="member: 6790260">But absolute zero-context &quot;random chance&quot;--which is what I assume you mean by &quot;far more often than random chance would dictate&quot;--almost never applies?Adventurers are, by their nature, people in a dangerous, often foolhardy &quot;profession&quot;, if it can even be called such. They are already, by their very nature, abnormal people. They are already, by their actions, doing things which skew probability WELL outside of the bell curve of anything one might call &quot;normal&quot; existence.&quot;Random chance&quot; for an adventurer is like trying to play poker with a tarot deck. All of the probabilities will be wildly off, and you're going to occasionally get hands that don't even have any possible score under poker rules. The probability distribution simply is not the same as it would be for a villager. (Indeed, most people are gonna have different things! A town guard is gonna see a lot more violence than a typical farmer will; a traveling merchant is braving the roads, but only occasionally visiting settled places; a wizarding student probably doesn't see much violence, but sees a heck of a lot of magical weirdness; etc.)Before you can assert what is &quot;far more often than random chance would dictate&quot;, you have to actually KNOW what is likely vs unlikely, and that's genuinely something most of us cannot know even in principle until we actually get some data to reason from.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="EzekielRaiden, post: 9678275, member: 6790260"] But absolute zero-context "random chance"--which is what I assume you mean by "far more often than random chance would dictate"--almost never applies? Adventurers are, by their nature, people in a dangerous, often foolhardy "profession", if it can even be called such. They are already, by their very nature, [I]abnormal[/I] people. They are already, by their actions, doing things which skew probability WELL outside of the bell curve of anything one might call "normal" existence. "Random chance" [I]for an adventurer[/I] is like trying to play poker with a tarot deck. All of the probabilities will be wildly off, and you're going to occasionally get hands that don't even have any possible score under poker rules. The probability distribution simply [I]is not the same[/I] as it would be for a villager. (Indeed, most people are gonna have different things! A town guard is gonna see a lot more violence than a typical farmer will; a traveling merchant is braving the roads, but only occasionally visiting settled places; a wizarding student probably doesn't see much violence, but sees a heck of a lot of magical weirdness; etc.) Before you can assert what is "far more often than random chance would dictate", you have to actually KNOW what is likely vs unlikely, and that's genuinely something most of us cannot know even in principle until we actually get some data to reason from. [/QUOTE]

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