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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Mad Hamish" data-source="post: 4663244" data-attributes="member: 25321">Based on my quick calcs in excell it's extremely rareWorking off a base roll to hit needed of x (ingoring 1 or less)unadjusted chance of missing with an attack is chance of rolling less than the needed number or 1 - (20 - needed + 1)/20 check 2 needed -> 1 - (20-2+1)/20 = 1-19/20 = 0.0511 needed -> 1 - (20-11 + 1)/20 = 1 - 10/20 = 0.5020 needed -> 1 - (20 - 20 + 1)/20 = 1 - 1/20 = 0.95which looks rightcareful strike has chance of hit of +0.10 from the normal attack(until you'd get a base attack needing a 21 to hit where careful strike gives 0.10 vs 0.05 and 22 to hit where they are both 0.05 to hit - although in both these cases careful strike would still do a crit while a normal attack wouldn't)The chance of at least one twin strike attack hitting is 1 - (chance of miss^2) for a roll to hit of 11 that gives careful strike a 60% chance of hitting and twin strike a 75% chance of hitting at least once (including 15% chance of hitting twice)for a roll to hit of 18 that gives careful strike a 25% chance of hitting and twin strike a 27.75 % chance of hittingfor a roll to hit of 19 careful strike has a 20% chance of hitting while twin strike has a 19% chance of at least one hit (but twin strike gets back most of that damage by having a 1% chance of hitting twice -> not all the damage because quarry doesn't apply twice. OTOH the chance of 2 crits per attack might more than make that up, I'd need to check the maths there and it'd probably vary widely depending on gear and feats)for a base hit on a 20 twin strike has a 15% chance of hitting, twin strike  9.75% for a base hit on a 21 twin strike has a 10% chance of hitting, twin strike 9.75% for a base hit on a 22 twin strike has a 5% chance of hitting, twin strike 9.75%So careful strike is more likely to hit than twin strike when you need a base of 19, 20 or 21 to hit.Maybe, but that doesn't mean it's a good option.People get all sorts of strange ideas.</blockquote>

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