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<blockquote data-quote="Esker" data-source="post: 7891909" data-attributes="member: 6966824">EDIT: Fixed[USER=16814]@Ovinomancer[/USER], for the sake of transparency, here are some tables showing the various quantities that go into my graphs, so you can more easily check my results against AnyDice or whatever. I hadn't shown this before because I was doing my calculations in R code rather than in a spreadsheet, but I've added the intermediate columns for you.Here are the success rates for the ordinary 1d20 compared to 2*3d6-10, where the latter uses a confirmation correction.[SPOILER][CODE]&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Target P_success_1d20 ScaledTarget P_exact_3d6 P_at_or_above_3d6 P_success_scaled3d61&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 1.00&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 5.0&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.028&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.981&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.9682&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 1&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 1.00&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 5.5&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.000&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.954&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.9543&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 2&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.95&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 6.0&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.046&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.954&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.9314&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 3&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.90&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 6.5&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.000&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.907&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.9075&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 4&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.85&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 7.0&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.069&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.907&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.8736&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 5&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.80&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 7.5&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.000&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.838&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.8387&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 6&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.75&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 8.0&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.097&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.838&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.7898&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 7&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.70&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 8.5&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.000&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.741&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.7419&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 8&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.65&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 9.0&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.116&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.741&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.68310&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 9&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.60&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 9.5&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.000&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.625&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.62511&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 10&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.55&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 10.0&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.125&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.625&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.56212&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 11&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.50&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 10.5&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.000&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.500&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.50013&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 12&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.45&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 11.0&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.125&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.500&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.43814&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 13&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.40&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 11.5&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.000&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.375&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.37515&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 14&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.35&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 12.0&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.116&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.375&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.31716&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 15&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.30&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 12.5&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.000&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.259&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.25917&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 16&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.25&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 13.0&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.097&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.259&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.21118&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 17&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.20&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 13.5&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.000&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.162&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.16219&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 18&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.15&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 14.0&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.069&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.162&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.12720&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 19&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.10&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 14.5&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.000&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.093&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.09321&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 20&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.05&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 15.0&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.046&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.093&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.06922&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 21&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.00&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 15.5&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.000&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.046&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.046[/CODE][/SPOILER]The way the final column is calculated is by applying the confirmation die, which subtracts half the probability of meeting the target exactly from the overall success rate.And here's the table for the ordinary 3d6 (with a confirmation correction), compared to a rescaled 1d20 (which you can either think of as transforming the target value to 10 + 2*(Target-10), or as transforming the roll itself to 10+(Roll-10)/2).[SPOILER][CODE]&nbsp;&nbsp; Target P_exact_3d6 P_at_or_above_3d6 P_success_3d6 ScaledTarget P_success_scaled1d201&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 2&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.000&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 1.000&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 1.000&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; -6&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 1.002&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 3&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.005&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 1.000&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.998&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; -4&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 1.003&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 4&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.014&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.995&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.988&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; -2&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 1.004&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 5&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.028&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.981&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.968&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 0&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 1.005&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 6&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.046&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.954&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.931&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 2&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.956&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 7&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.069&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.907&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.873&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 4&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.857&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 8&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.097&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.838&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.789&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 6&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.758&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 9&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.116&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.741&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.683&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 8&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.659&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 10&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.125&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.625&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.562&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 10&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.5510&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 11&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.125&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.500&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.438&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 12&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.4511&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 12&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.116&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.375&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.317&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 14&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.3512&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 13&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.097&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.259&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.211&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 16&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.2513&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 14&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.069&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.162&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.127&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 18&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.1514&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 15&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.046&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.093&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.069&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 20&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.0515&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 16&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.028&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.046&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.032&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 22&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.0016&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 17&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.014&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.019&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.012&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 24&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.0017&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 18&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.005&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.005&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.002&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 26&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.0018&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 19&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.000&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.000&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.000&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 28&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0.00[/CODE][/SPOILER]</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Esker, post: 7891909, member: 6966824"] EDIT: Fixed [USER=16814]@Ovinomancer[/USER], for the sake of transparency, here are some tables showing the various quantities that go into my graphs, so you can more easily check my results against AnyDice or whatever. I hadn't shown this before because I was doing my calculations in R code rather than in a spreadsheet, but I've added the intermediate columns for you. Here are the success rates for the ordinary 1d20 compared to 2*3d6-10, where the latter uses a confirmation correction. [SPOILER] [CODE] Target P_success_1d20 ScaledTarget P_exact_3d6 P_at_or_above_3d6 P_success_scaled3d6 1 0 1.00 5.0 0.028 0.981 0.968 2 1 1.00 5.5 0.000 0.954 0.954 3 2 0.95 6.0 0.046 0.954 0.931 4 3 0.90 6.5 0.000 0.907 0.907 5 4 0.85 7.0 0.069 0.907 0.873 6 5 0.80 7.5 0.000 0.838 0.838 7 6 0.75 8.0 0.097 0.838 0.789 8 7 0.70 8.5 0.000 0.741 0.741 9 8 0.65 9.0 0.116 0.741 0.683 10 9 0.60 9.5 0.000 0.625 0.625 11 10 0.55 10.0 0.125 0.625 0.562 12 11 0.50 10.5 0.000 0.500 0.500 13 12 0.45 11.0 0.125 0.500 0.438 14 13 0.40 11.5 0.000 0.375 0.375 15 14 0.35 12.0 0.116 0.375 0.317 16 15 0.30 12.5 0.000 0.259 0.259 17 16 0.25 13.0 0.097 0.259 0.211 18 17 0.20 13.5 0.000 0.162 0.162 19 18 0.15 14.0 0.069 0.162 0.127 20 19 0.10 14.5 0.000 0.093 0.093 21 20 0.05 15.0 0.046 0.093 0.069 22 21 0.00 15.5 0.000 0.046 0.046 [/CODE] [/SPOILER] The way the final column is calculated is by applying the confirmation die, which subtracts half the probability of meeting the target exactly from the overall success rate. And here's the table for the ordinary 3d6 (with a confirmation correction), compared to a rescaled 1d20 (which you can either think of as transforming the target value to 10 + 2*(Target-10), or as transforming the roll itself to 10+(Roll-10)/2). [SPOILER] [CODE] Target P_exact_3d6 P_at_or_above_3d6 P_success_3d6 ScaledTarget P_success_scaled1d20 1 2 0.000 1.000 1.000 -6 1.00 2 3 0.005 1.000 0.998 -4 1.00 3 4 0.014 0.995 0.988 -2 1.00 4 5 0.028 0.981 0.968 0 1.00 5 6 0.046 0.954 0.931 2 0.95 6 7 0.069 0.907 0.873 4 0.85 7 8 0.097 0.838 0.789 6 0.75 8 9 0.116 0.741 0.683 8 0.65 9 10 0.125 0.625 0.562 10 0.55 10 11 0.125 0.500 0.438 12 0.45 11 12 0.116 0.375 0.317 14 0.35 12 13 0.097 0.259 0.211 16 0.25 13 14 0.069 0.162 0.127 18 0.15 14 15 0.046 0.093 0.069 20 0.05 15 16 0.028 0.046 0.032 22 0.00 16 17 0.014 0.019 0.012 24 0.00 17 18 0.005 0.005 0.002 26 0.00 18 19 0.000 0.000 0.000 28 0.00 [/CODE] [/SPOILER] [/QUOTE]

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