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Revenant Assassin / Warlock Build and League of Whispers vs. Ninja Comparison
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<blockquote data-quote="vtphoenix" data-source="post: 6857092" data-attributes="member: 6806215"><p>Hi, thanks for replying. I'll try to explain the best I can. For To-Hit I used 10+level+6 for AC and 10+level+4 for non-AC defenses. So for Precision Dart, I figure I'd hit 65% of the time (on an 8 or better). Then I multiplied .65 times the average damage per die. For any die, it's the maximum plus the minimum divided by 2 (e.g. 2.5 on 1d4, 4.5 on 1d8, etc.).</p><p></p><p>For Poisonous Shuriken, it was a lot more complex, because you have to calculate the odds and average damage of more event combinations. In other words, the odds off hitting 0 enemies is .45 x .45 x .45 or about .09. But there are 3 different combinations that result in hitting 2 enemies: </p><p></p><p>hit - hit - miss</p><p>hit - miss - hit</p><p>miss - hit - hit</p><p></p><p>So you have to figure out the odds of 1 combo (.55 x .55 x .45) and multiply it by 3 or about .41</p><p></p><p>And you do the same thing for the odds of hitting 1 enemy (.55 x .45 x .45 x 3) or about .33</p><p></p><p>The odds of hitting all 3 enemies are (.55 x .55 x .55) or about .17.</p><p></p><p>If everything was done right, the percentages should add up to 100%. They're the only outcomes possible. As an aside, I just realized that I did not calculate for critical damage - this could easily be done, though I'm not really inclined to do so at this time, I suspect it won't change my decision since I'm more interested in dazed turns than damage.</p><p></p><p>Anyway, you multiply the chance of each event times the outcome. So we get:</p><p></p><p>(.09)(0) = 0</p><p>(.41)(21.5) = 8.82</p><p>(.33)(13) = 4.29</p><p>(.17)(30) = 5.1</p><p></p><p>And then you add up the totals to get an average damage of 18.21. </p><p>Oh my damage is based on rolling 1d4 for a hit (2.5) adding 1d8 for Attack Finesse if there's at least 1 hit (4.5) and adding 6 for poison (for each hit). </p><p></p><p>Figuring out dazed turns was a lot more time consuming as I had to break each probability branch into other probabilities. For example, if there was a 40% chance of enemies losing 2+ turns, I would break this up further to like 22% EXACTLY 2 turns (enemy saves, .40 x .55) and 18% 3 or more turns (enemy doesn't save, .40 x .45). Then I would break the 18% down, and so forth. </p><p></p><p>I would add together any identical events. Essentially, I used a probability tree and double-checked that all the final probabilities added to 100. Then I figured out the expected value of each event and added all of those together, just as I did with damage.</p><p></p><p>It's not perfect because there is a very small chance that an enemy could fail 100 times in a row or 1000 even. But since I was only looking for a number accurate to within a couple hundredths, I discounted events that happen extremely rarely (< 2% of the time). </p><p></p><p>The reason I bothered to do all of that is because I'm a min-maxer at heart and I really don't like the ninja path abilities (besides Poisonous Shuriken). I was basically looking for an excuse to play League of Whispers instead for Bola Takedown. Even though Poisonous Shuriken is better for delivering poison in many instances, the math helped me to put the degree to which it is better in perspective. </p><p></p><p>Yes, I will make an enemy lose about 1 more attack per day on average. Yes, I will do about 10 more damage per day on average. But I feel that Bola Takedown can easily make up for this. How many attacks will melee foes lose over the course of the day to an Assassin that opens with a prone attack? How many flying creatures will be knocked out of the air? Not to mention that there are times I'll probably just apply my poison to my flail for Eldritch Strike.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="vtphoenix, post: 6857092, member: 6806215"] Hi, thanks for replying. I'll try to explain the best I can. For To-Hit I used 10+level+6 for AC and 10+level+4 for non-AC defenses. So for Precision Dart, I figure I'd hit 65% of the time (on an 8 or better). Then I multiplied .65 times the average damage per die. For any die, it's the maximum plus the minimum divided by 2 (e.g. 2.5 on 1d4, 4.5 on 1d8, etc.). For Poisonous Shuriken, it was a lot more complex, because you have to calculate the odds and average damage of more event combinations. In other words, the odds off hitting 0 enemies is .45 x .45 x .45 or about .09. But there are 3 different combinations that result in hitting 2 enemies: hit - hit - miss hit - miss - hit miss - hit - hit So you have to figure out the odds of 1 combo (.55 x .55 x .45) and multiply it by 3 or about .41 And you do the same thing for the odds of hitting 1 enemy (.55 x .45 x .45 x 3) or about .33 The odds of hitting all 3 enemies are (.55 x .55 x .55) or about .17. If everything was done right, the percentages should add up to 100%. They're the only outcomes possible. As an aside, I just realized that I did not calculate for critical damage - this could easily be done, though I'm not really inclined to do so at this time, I suspect it won't change my decision since I'm more interested in dazed turns than damage. Anyway, you multiply the chance of each event times the outcome. So we get: (.09)(0) = 0 (.41)(21.5) = 8.82 (.33)(13) = 4.29 (.17)(30) = 5.1 And then you add up the totals to get an average damage of 18.21. Oh my damage is based on rolling 1d4 for a hit (2.5) adding 1d8 for Attack Finesse if there's at least 1 hit (4.5) and adding 6 for poison (for each hit). Figuring out dazed turns was a lot more time consuming as I had to break each probability branch into other probabilities. For example, if there was a 40% chance of enemies losing 2+ turns, I would break this up further to like 22% EXACTLY 2 turns (enemy saves, .40 x .55) and 18% 3 or more turns (enemy doesn't save, .40 x .45). Then I would break the 18% down, and so forth. I would add together any identical events. Essentially, I used a probability tree and double-checked that all the final probabilities added to 100. Then I figured out the expected value of each event and added all of those together, just as I did with damage. It's not perfect because there is a very small chance that an enemy could fail 100 times in a row or 1000 even. But since I was only looking for a number accurate to within a couple hundredths, I discounted events that happen extremely rarely (< 2% of the time). The reason I bothered to do all of that is because I'm a min-maxer at heart and I really don't like the ninja path abilities (besides Poisonous Shuriken). I was basically looking for an excuse to play League of Whispers instead for Bola Takedown. Even though Poisonous Shuriken is better for delivering poison in many instances, the math helped me to put the degree to which it is better in perspective. Yes, I will make an enemy lose about 1 more attack per day on average. Yes, I will do about 10 more damage per day on average. But I feel that Bola Takedown can easily make up for this. How many attacks will melee foes lose over the course of the day to an Assassin that opens with a prone attack? How many flying creatures will be knocked out of the air? Not to mention that there are times I'll probably just apply my poison to my flail for Eldritch Strike. [/QUOTE]
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