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Rogues are Awesome. Is it the Tasha's Effect?
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<blockquote data-quote="Ovinomancer" data-source="post: 8375274" data-attributes="member: 16814"><p>Firstly, I had an error in my spreadsheet that was plumping TWF slightly. Thanks for the opportunity to go over my sheet and find that.</p><p></p><p>That said, I'm getting a different set of numbers than you are. Sanity check -- rapier and advantage (or xbow and advantage) -- d8+3 at AC 15 with +2 prof and +3 ability for a 50% hit chance. From this I get:</p><p>Non-Crit hit chance: .45</p><p>Crit chance: .05</p><p></p><p>We have two cases we care about -- chance for a non-crit hit and chance for a critical hit.</p><p>CASE 1 (non crit hit) -- .6525 chance</p><p>--case 1a -- first non-crit hits, second misses -- .45*.5 = 0.225</p><p>--case 1b -- first misses, second non-crit hits -- .5*.45 = 0.225</p><p>--case 1c -- both non-crit hit -- .45*.45 = 0.2025</p><p></p><p>Damage for case 1: 4.5 weapon + 3 DEX + 7 sneak = 14.5</p><p><strong>Average damage Case 1: 14.5 * 0.6525 = 9.46125</strong></p><p></p><p>CASE 2 (critical hit) -- 0.0975</p><p>--case 2a -- first crits, second does not -- 0.05*0.95 = 0.0475</p><p>--case 2b -- first doesn't crit, second does -- 0.95*0.05 = 0.0475</p><p>--case 2c -- both crit -- 0.05^2 = 0.0025</p><p></p><p>Damage for case 2: 9 weapon + 3 DEX + 14 sneak = 26</p><p><strong>Average damage Case 2: 26 * 0.0975 = 2.535</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Case 1 + Case 2 average damage: 9.46125 + 2.535 = 11.99625</strong></p><p></p><p>I did this in excel, and then on paper, and then again in this thread. Point out where I went wrong, please?</p><p></p><p>I'm also off on the TWF. The cases there are much more complex. You have</p><p>Case 1 -- 1st non crit hits, second misses</p><p>Case 2 -- 1st misses, second non-crit hits</p><p>Case 3 -- 1st crits, second misses</p><p>Case 4 -- 1st misses, second crits</p><p>Case 5 -- both non-crit hit </p><p>Case 6 -- 1st crits, second non-crit hits</p><p>Case 7 -- 1st non-crit hits, second crits</p><p>Case 8 -- both crit</p><p></p><p>My calculations for level 3 show TWF coming in at 11.125 DPR. I have that in excel, and used the crit cases chance as a sanity check, because TWF case 3, 4, 6, 7, and 8 should have the same overall chance as advantage case 2, and they do.</p><p></p><p>Not sure where the error is. Double check yours and see if you can spot anywhere I've gone wrong. My intuitive thinking is that TWF should outperform advantage because you get the other weapon's damage in.</p><p></p><p>My numbers for 7th level are TWF 19.69, ADV 19.96125</p><p>My numbers for 11th level are TWF 29.225. ADV 28.61625</p><p></p><p></p><p>No issues with this, but the relative chances for each change as the levels go up, so the impacts change. Specifically, the crit chances for TWF -- it starts to weight much more heavily towards both hit with one crit. Because the chance of a damaging crit with the additional damage alongside increases here, but doesn't change for advantage, as sneak attack damage increases, this has a greater impact on TWF. Which is why you see the numbers (at least mine) get close to parity by level 5 and then at 11, TWF steps forward. However, in all cases, it appears that the difference in DPR is within 1, even if you extend to 20th (where TWF gets a whopping ~0.8 higher).</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Ovinomancer, post: 8375274, member: 16814"] Firstly, I had an error in my spreadsheet that was plumping TWF slightly. Thanks for the opportunity to go over my sheet and find that. That said, I'm getting a different set of numbers than you are. Sanity check -- rapier and advantage (or xbow and advantage) -- d8+3 at AC 15 with +2 prof and +3 ability for a 50% hit chance. From this I get: Non-Crit hit chance: .45 Crit chance: .05 We have two cases we care about -- chance for a non-crit hit and chance for a critical hit. CASE 1 (non crit hit) -- .6525 chance --case 1a -- first non-crit hits, second misses -- .45*.5 = 0.225 --case 1b -- first misses, second non-crit hits -- .5*.45 = 0.225 --case 1c -- both non-crit hit -- .45*.45 = 0.2025 Damage for case 1: 4.5 weapon + 3 DEX + 7 sneak = 14.5 [B]Average damage Case 1: 14.5 * 0.6525 = 9.46125[/B] CASE 2 (critical hit) -- 0.0975 --case 2a -- first crits, second does not -- 0.05*0.95 = 0.0475 --case 2b -- first doesn't crit, second does -- 0.95*0.05 = 0.0475 --case 2c -- both crit -- 0.05^2 = 0.0025 Damage for case 2: 9 weapon + 3 DEX + 14 sneak = 26 [B]Average damage Case 2: 26 * 0.0975 = 2.535 Case 1 + Case 2 average damage: 9.46125 + 2.535 = 11.99625[/B] I did this in excel, and then on paper, and then again in this thread. Point out where I went wrong, please? I'm also off on the TWF. The cases there are much more complex. You have Case 1 -- 1st non crit hits, second misses Case 2 -- 1st misses, second non-crit hits Case 3 -- 1st crits, second misses Case 4 -- 1st misses, second crits Case 5 -- both non-crit hit Case 6 -- 1st crits, second non-crit hits Case 7 -- 1st non-crit hits, second crits Case 8 -- both crit My calculations for level 3 show TWF coming in at 11.125 DPR. I have that in excel, and used the crit cases chance as a sanity check, because TWF case 3, 4, 6, 7, and 8 should have the same overall chance as advantage case 2, and they do. Not sure where the error is. Double check yours and see if you can spot anywhere I've gone wrong. My intuitive thinking is that TWF should outperform advantage because you get the other weapon's damage in. My numbers for 7th level are TWF 19.69, ADV 19.96125 My numbers for 11th level are TWF 29.225. ADV 28.61625 No issues with this, but the relative chances for each change as the levels go up, so the impacts change. Specifically, the crit chances for TWF -- it starts to weight much more heavily towards both hit with one crit. Because the chance of a damaging crit with the additional damage alongside increases here, but doesn't change for advantage, as sneak attack damage increases, this has a greater impact on TWF. Which is why you see the numbers (at least mine) get close to parity by level 5 and then at 11, TWF steps forward. However, in all cases, it appears that the difference in DPR is within 1, even if you extend to 20th (where TWF gets a whopping ~0.8 higher). [/QUOTE]
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