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Rolled character stats higher than point buy?
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<blockquote data-quote="Arial Black" data-source="post: 6875265" data-attributes="member: 6799649"><p>No, the observed average of previously generated rolls that are <em>not</em> discarded would be higher, but the roll itself will be the same average!</p><p></p><p>1d6 generates an average of 3.5.</p><p></p><p>1d6, re-roll 5 or less; what's the average?</p><p></p><p>Well, <em>which</em> average? The average <em>result?</em> Exactly 6. The average number <em>generated?</em> That stays at 3.5!</p><p></p><p>If you have 1d6 and discard any result of 2 or less, the average number <em>generated</em> by that 1d6 remains 3.5. It still has a 1 in 6 chance to generate each of the six results. If you roll a 1 or 2 and re-roll, the average number generated is still 3.5! If you roll a 3, 4, 5 or 6, you don't re-roll at all, and whether or not this is your first roll or your 50th, the average result of the die you rolled will still be 3.5. You don't have a higher chance of <em>rolling</em> a 3, 4, 5, or 6, just because you choose to roll again if you roll 1 or 2!</p><p></p><p>And <em>that</em> is the reality of generating a set of six stats! No re-roll changes the expected number <em>generated</em> by that method, and it is the set you <em>generate</em> which becomes your used set. That set has no expectation of generating a higher set than was expected previously.</p><p></p><p>Any average you observe after the fact has absolutely no impact on the average you are expected to generate.</p><p></p><p>In fact, the actual rolls of a group may be higher or lower than the expected average, but this doesn't mean that the rules you used to generate those sets were <em>expected</em> to be higher using that method; it just turned out that way. You wouldn't make the mistake of looking at a high set of results and say that the method used must therefore have <em>expected</em> this average, would you? And yet this is what you're doing with discards; seeing the <em>results</em> of the average sets after discarding, and erroneously concluding that the method of generation <em>must</em> have changed the expected average <em>generated</em> by that method!</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Arial Black, post: 6875265, member: 6799649"] No, the observed average of previously generated rolls that are [i]not[/i] discarded would be higher, but the roll itself will be the same average! 1d6 generates an average of 3.5. 1d6, re-roll 5 or less; what's the average? Well, [i]which[/i] average? The average [i]result?[/i] Exactly 6. The average number [i]generated?[/i] That stays at 3.5! If you have 1d6 and discard any result of 2 or less, the average number [i]generated[/i] by that 1d6 remains 3.5. It still has a 1 in 6 chance to generate each of the six results. If you roll a 1 or 2 and re-roll, the average number generated is still 3.5! If you roll a 3, 4, 5 or 6, you don't re-roll at all, and whether or not this is your first roll or your 50th, the average result of the die you rolled will still be 3.5. You don't have a higher chance of [i]rolling[/i] a 3, 4, 5, or 6, just because you choose to roll again if you roll 1 or 2! And [i]that[/i] is the reality of generating a set of six stats! No re-roll changes the expected number [i]generated[/i] by that method, and it is the set you [i]generate[/i] which becomes your used set. That set has no expectation of generating a higher set than was expected previously. Any average you observe after the fact has absolutely no impact on the average you are expected to generate. In fact, the actual rolls of a group may be higher or lower than the expected average, but this doesn't mean that the rules you used to generate those sets were [i]expected[/i] to be higher using that method; it just turned out that way. You wouldn't make the mistake of looking at a high set of results and say that the method used must therefore have [i]expected[/i] this average, would you? And yet this is what you're doing with discards; seeing the [i]results[/i] of the average sets after discarding, and erroneously concluding that the method of generation [i]must[/i] have changed the expected average [i]generated[/i] by that method! [/QUOTE]
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