Reply to thread

Message: <blockquote data-quote="Arial Black" data-source="post: 6877206" data-attributes="member: 6799649">Since the average set of six 4d6k3 is around 16/14/13/12/10/9, discarding sets whose modifiers add up to less than +1, and sets that don't have any stat of 14+, we are not 'only keeping sets that are well above average'.If we think of rolled sets as either 'low', 'medium' or 'high', where 'low' is what gets discarded, then the only thing discarding does is prevent low sets from being played. This does indeed increase the observed average of played sets (without affecting stat generation), it does not do this by increasing the likelihood of high numbers being generated, or even by increasing average scores and making them any higher. It only removes low sets from play, not make any played set any higher than it would be without the discarding rule; the discarding rule does not get used at all for any set that is played.Each rolled set is a separate event. No previous discarded set influences the next rolled set in any way. The possibilities of the second (third, fourth,...) set each include the low rolls that will also be discarded, using the exact same bell-curve as the first, and as it would be without any discard rule in place. 4d6k3 remains 4d6k3, regardless of how many sets you throw away.And this is the point. The set you roll that isn't discarded had the exact same probabilities as any about-to-be-rolled set, whether there is a discard rule or not. There is no need to fear that high rolls are more likely to be generated, because the only practical effect of discarding low sets is that low sets don't get played, not that the remaining sets are improved in any way.Since point-buy doesn't allow low sets either, a discard rule when rolling stats should not make you fear especially high results if the same method without a discard rule wouldn't either.</blockquote>

Verification