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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Celebrim" data-source="post: 7823175" data-attributes="member: 4937">But they are not actually going to collect evidence. I mean, bad things happening at cons are already black swans as it is. For most con goers, most of the time, they see no black swans, so they would logically assume "no black swans" or "this isn't a big problem". It's only for the people it happens to that this is a big deal.So what you are going to have is the adoption of X cards, and problems will still be black swans. Since the cards do nothing 99.99% of the time, and the odds of black swans are low anyway, the general impression everyone will have is exactly the same as before "this isn't a big problem". The results are therefore guaranteed to be perceived as a success no matter what. It could takes years to shake out in real problems in a way anyone questions the model, and then since this was a matter of faith in the first place, initially no one will believe it.So yeah, the point is that there aren't actually going to be any scientific trials gathering meaningful data.</blockquote>