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Rule-of-Three: 07/24/2012
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<blockquote data-quote="delericho" data-source="post: 5976959" data-attributes="member: 22424"><p>For the record, I don't believe DDI was a failure either; I was merely covering all the cases. (And, as I noted, had it failed, I'm inclined to think it would have taken the entire D&D RPG down with it.)</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>On the face of it, that's really good numbers. Except...</p><p></p><p>Just before WotC licensed out Dragon to Paizo, it had a subscriber base of 50,000 or so people. The subscription costs were about half of what it costs for DDI - approx $3 per month at the cheapest rate vs $6 for DDI. And, of course, Dragon didn't have the ongoing server costs, the massive databases, or the need for errata/revisions or tool development and maintenance that DDI has.</p><p></p><p>And the reason WotC licensed Dragon out to Paizo? They were about to cancel it, because it wasn't worth their effort.</p><p></p><p>I <em>think</em> that they were hoping for something more like 200k subscribers (IIRC, that was the figure Dancey gave in his recent analysis on the Escapist). That certainly would have been the runaway success I mentioned, but it seems near-certain that that hasn't happened. I'm also almost certain that DDI hasn't failed outright (see the top of this post). But what I don't know is whether 70k represents a marginal or a moderate success, nor where WotC will go with it next.</p><p></p><p>(With regard to your point about the "Dresden Files" book: unfortunately, being <a href="http://www.enworld.org/forum/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=1" target="_blank">#1</a> in RPGs <em>isn't enough</em>. D&D has to succeed in the context of Hasbro, versus whatever metrics they use, and according to the expectations that they have for their brands. This means that D&D could outsell the next largest RPG by a factor of 10, 100, or more, and still fail - it may very well be that RPGs are simply too small an issue for Hasbro to bother with.)</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="delericho, post: 5976959, member: 22424"] For the record, I don't believe DDI was a failure either; I was merely covering all the cases. (And, as I noted, had it failed, I'm inclined to think it would have taken the entire D&D RPG down with it.) On the face of it, that's really good numbers. Except... Just before WotC licensed out Dragon to Paizo, it had a subscriber base of 50,000 or so people. The subscription costs were about half of what it costs for DDI - approx $3 per month at the cheapest rate vs $6 for DDI. And, of course, Dragon didn't have the ongoing server costs, the massive databases, or the need for errata/revisions or tool development and maintenance that DDI has. And the reason WotC licensed Dragon out to Paizo? They were about to cancel it, because it wasn't worth their effort. I [i]think[/i] that they were hoping for something more like 200k subscribers (IIRC, that was the figure Dancey gave in his recent analysis on the Escapist). That certainly would have been the runaway success I mentioned, but it seems near-certain that that hasn't happened. I'm also almost certain that DDI hasn't failed outright (see the top of this post). But what I don't know is whether 70k represents a marginal or a moderate success, nor where WotC will go with it next. (With regard to your point about the "Dresden Files" book: unfortunately, being [URL=http://www.enworld.org/forum/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=1]#1[/URL] in RPGs [i]isn't enough[/i]. D&D has to succeed in the context of Hasbro, versus whatever metrics they use, and according to the expectations that they have for their brands. This means that D&D could outsell the next largest RPG by a factor of 10, 100, or more, and still fail - it may very well be that RPGs are simply too small an issue for Hasbro to bother with.) [/QUOTE]
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