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<blockquote data-quote="Jer" data-source="post: 4216190" data-attributes="member: 19857">I think this, combined with the observation about &quot;whatever creative team is in charge at the time&quot; are the two most important observations to make.We don't know what shifts are going to come in our little gaming subculture over the next decade.&nbsp; And we don't know what innovations are going to come in the next decade either.&nbsp; We can't know.&nbsp; This far out there's really no point in speculation unless you want to play &quot;Cassandra&quot; and try to come up with &quot;worst case scenarios&quot; to make your blood boil and keep you up at night worrying.In about 5 years I'll start thinking about where D&amp;D is going to go next - at that point there will be a critical mass of &quot;stuff&quot; out on the market that a useful gauge of where D&amp;D CAN go will be appropriate.&nbsp; And at that point the other games that may exert an influence on D&amp;D will probably also be on the market.&nbsp; And we may have some idea of who the creative team that will be working on the next edition will be.&nbsp; And even with the knowledge of all of those variables, five years from now I'll STILL probably get it wrong (I was convinced that 4e would be a &quot;conservative&quot; upgrade for a long time - my fears were that they wouldn't do anything big to shake it up and we'd end up with another 2nd edition &quot;veneer of change&quot; instead of a game different enough from 3e to actually be worth buying - boy was I wrong).</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Jer, post: 4216190, member: 19857"] I think this, combined with the observation about "whatever creative team is in charge at the time" are the two most important observations to make. We don't know what shifts are going to come in our little gaming subculture over the next decade. And we don't know what innovations are going to come in the next decade either. We can't know. This far out there's really no point in speculation unless you want to play "Cassandra" and try to come up with "worst case scenarios" to make your blood boil and keep you up at night worrying. In about 5 years I'll start thinking about where D&D is going to go next - at that point there will be a critical mass of "stuff" out on the market that a useful gauge of where D&D CAN go will be appropriate. And at that point the other games that may exert an influence on D&D will probably also be on the market. And we may have some idea of who the creative team that will be working on the next edition will be. And even with the knowledge of all of those variables, five years from now I'll STILL probably get it wrong (I was convinced that 4e would be a "conservative" upgrade for a long time - my fears were that they wouldn't do anything big to shake it up and we'd end up with another 2nd edition "veneer of change" instead of a game different enough from 3e to actually be worth buying - boy was I wrong). [/QUOTE]

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