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Message: <blockquote data-quote="clearstream" data-source="post: 7453994" data-attributes="member: 71699">Here my OCD shines through <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f642.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":)" title="Smile    :)"  data-smilie="1"data-shortname=":)" /> I took values in the DMG for pacing - suggested advancement rates, encounters to advance at that rate, etc - and created scenarios in Excel for survival over a character's career. To allow for the probability that most groups won't play to 20th level, I looked at survival rates moving from tier to tier. What I found was that unless I used very low rates per encounter (half a percent or less) I'd see horrible attrition across the required numbers of encounters.For instance, if I have a 1% chance to die per encounter, and I need 6 encounters to level, say, then my survival to next level is 0.99^6=0.94. If that stays constant, I have about a 50/50 chance of surviving all the way to level 10.To be honest, the use of this model isn't the precise numbers, but rather the features and trends. One can see that on a per character per encounter basis, death must occur at a low frequency. Characters should go into encounters with an expectation of survival. Revival magic plays an important role in allowing encounters to remain challenging, instead of becoming more and more trivial at higher levels. High level characters die, but they are less likely to permanently die.</blockquote>

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