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Message: <blockquote data-quote="danbala" data-source="post: 4749183" data-attributes="member: 8464">I've have some questions about Dancy core theory. His theory about PHB2 -- as I understand it -- is that it sold out early because it was under solicited by the bookstore chains. He guesses that this is because either (1) WotC lacked confidence in the product or (2) the bookstore chains lacked confidence.I have two problems with this: (1) First I question the logic of the "under order" theory; and (2) even if this is true it could more easily be explained by the observable market conditions.The second point first. It seems to me that there is a simpler reason for under ordering than a lack of confidence in the product. Several of the big book store chains are flirting with bankruptcy -- in particular Borders. Retailers in general are under ordering across the board and deliberately depleted their warehouse stock. So it very likely that the under ordering was the result of over cautiousness caused by the recession – rather than a commentary on the long term prospects of table top gaming. In fact, the high PHB2s sales can be seen as evidence that RPGs -- like comics and some movies -- are "recession resistant" because the core fanbase continues to turn out despite the macro conditions.Moreover, I have a question about whether deliberate under ordering is really a factor. We know, for example, that the core books sold out their first printing based solely on pre orders. That would seem to fly in the face of the “lead time = perfect knowledge of numbers needed for print runs” part of the theory. If WotC can predict months out what the book store chains will buy, then why would they ever print less copies than where needed even for the pre-orders? It seems to me that unexpectedly high demand is the only reasonable conclusion.I think Occam’s Razor would suggest that retailers are under ordering because they are skittish in general and don’t understand the significance of a new edition to the players. It would seem that demand has outstripped expectations for the product.</blockquote>

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