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Message: <blockquote data-quote="BryonD" data-source="post: 4751218" data-attributes="member: 957">lolThere is plenty there, both conjecture and non-conjecture, that may be addressed.  You are using circular logic.  You don't need to demonstrate a lack of substance because after all, there is no substance....   sighOf course, even if it was 100% conjecture, false conjecture can be exposed.Go for it.I think equating Dancey to an outsider equivalent to a total layman weather forecaster is either ill-considered or intentionally misleading.That said, I do agree that it isn't that big a deal.  To me the amusing observation is that so many people toss his claims out the window (still without actually responding to the points themselves) because he "has a horse in the race".  And yet the people most worked up here are the ones who take WotC comments as gospel.  I find it quite amusing.  The benefit that other games would gain from a perception of D&D decline is minimal.  Whereas the gain or harm WotC would see based on how the status of D&D is perceived would be much more significant.  Though even that is far from the factor that will make or break the game.I think that demonstrating a position as wrong is better than ad hominem attacks.I think that declaring a position to be unsubstantiated and therefore refusing to offer any form of rebuttal is a very weak form of dodge.  I think that consistently avoiding rebuttal and leaning on change-the-subject responses is pretty damning of the opposing stance.I think even if Dancey is correct in his PHB2 claims, it is way over-stated to claim this constitutes a "death spiral".I think WotC has vastly more reason to spin the data than Dancey.I think that PHB2 sales are good.I think that 9 months after the release of the game itself, PHB2 sales better be good or the game is in real trouble.I think that, taken as a whole group, the 4E target audience is distinctly less inclined to buy a lot of supplements than the 3E target audience was.  I think the people who told me the edition wars would be over by the end of last summer were wrong.</blockquote>

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