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Ryan Dancey - D&D in a Death Spiral
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<blockquote data-quote="I'm A Banana" data-source="post: 5340790" data-attributes="member: 2067"><p>That was sort of my point in another thread in pointing out that DDI might be the "new PHB," the new Evergreen sales. Perhaps people are being driven to the DDI, making 4e material subject to rapid rise and fall: the first month is all the sales that they really care about. </p><p></p><p>The point is less how true that might be, and more that it's one of many believable scenarios. Low PHB sales (or high PHB turnover) don't mean anything in isolation. They could be a datapoint, but we have so few datapoints, it's kind of like taking one strange bone from a dig in the Great Rift Valley and claiming that it shows that humans descended from dire mongoose. </p><p></p><p>Needs Moar Data.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>Why? Online retailers are just a fraction of sales, especially given how hard WotC is pushing brick-and-mortar FLGS (which is overall a strategy to keep D&D groups forming -- few D&D Groups form over Amazon comments). 4EPHB sales also don't tell us how the edition is doing as a whole. </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>Speculation upon speculation. Which is fine, and can be fun, but doesn't project anything concrete. And in this case, it tends to be people saying "My edition is selling great, your edition is selling poorly," which isn't, IMO, a very useful conversation, even if we DID have the evidence for it one way or the other.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="I'm A Banana, post: 5340790, member: 2067"] That was sort of my point in another thread in pointing out that DDI might be the "new PHB," the new Evergreen sales. Perhaps people are being driven to the DDI, making 4e material subject to rapid rise and fall: the first month is all the sales that they really care about. The point is less how true that might be, and more that it's one of many believable scenarios. Low PHB sales (or high PHB turnover) don't mean anything in isolation. They could be a datapoint, but we have so few datapoints, it's kind of like taking one strange bone from a dig in the Great Rift Valley and claiming that it shows that humans descended from dire mongoose. Needs Moar Data. Why? Online retailers are just a fraction of sales, especially given how hard WotC is pushing brick-and-mortar FLGS (which is overall a strategy to keep D&D groups forming -- few D&D Groups form over Amazon comments). 4EPHB sales also don't tell us how the edition is doing as a whole. Speculation upon speculation. Which is fine, and can be fun, but doesn't project anything concrete. And in this case, it tends to be people saying "My edition is selling great, your edition is selling poorly," which isn't, IMO, a very useful conversation, even if we DID have the evidence for it one way or the other. [/QUOTE]
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