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Message: <blockquote data-quote="RyanD" data-source="post: 3698418" data-attributes="member: 3312">There used to be vastly more people playing TRPGs monthly than playing Magic monthly.  In 1999 we estimated the monthly player community at 1.5 million players (for D&D) and about 2-2.5 million players (all TRPGs combined).  I believe that total increased from 2000-2003, but I don't have access to any reliable data to support that conclusion, it's just a guess.Here's the math for Magic:Assumptions:  The average player buys 2.5 displays worth of each expansion.  Assume the average booster display contains 36 booster packs, at SRP$3.49.  Assume 3 expansions per year.Assume the US wholesale value of Magic is $50 million (that means WotC sells $50 million worth of Magic to its wholesalers).  The Magic discount is about 45% of SRP.  So the retail value of Magic in the US is about $110 million.$110 million / 3 expansions / 36 boosters / $3.49 / 2.5 displays per expansion == 116,733 players.Assume a significant overhang for people trying out the game but not becoming dedicated players, speculators, grey market sales, etc, and it would be fair to estimate the US player community for Magic is between 150,000 and 200,000 players.Magic accounts for about 33% of total CCG sales in the US, so if we assumed that everyone playing every other game exclusively played those games (which we know is false, but gives us a hard upper limit on players) the US CCG population is between 450,000 and 600,000 players.The interesting question becomes:  After WoW growing to 9 million players, and the TRPG business losing half (or more) of its volume from its recent height, how many people are still playing a TRPG monthly? My gut instinct tells me that the figure has probably fallen by 50%, to somewhere around 1 million people.Of course, there's very little relation between the number of people playing TRPGs vs. the number of people buying them.Ryan</blockquote>

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