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<blockquote data-quote="KarinsDad" data-source="post: 6409982" data-attributes="member: 2011">Except now you are comparing 5E Encounter abilities with 5E Daily abilities.Tell that to the thousands of kobolds that have already died in 5E from a single weapon attack. <img src="http://www.enworld.org/forum/images/smilies/erm.png"&nbsp; class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=":erm:" title="Erm&nbsp; &nbsp; :erm:" data-shortname=":erm:" />Actually, I totally get the high risk, high reward aspect of it and the fact that there should always be a chance for the spell to fail.But, let's take Hold Person as an example. There are 25 humanoid races and 71 humanoid entries (25 of which come from the NPC appendix) in the Monster Manual. There are ~485 total creatures. So less then 15% of all creatures are humanoid. The vast majority of those humanoids (i.e. almost all) have a Wisdom save in the +0 to +2 range.The odds of the spell working 0 rounds (i.e. not at all), 1 round, and so on when the PC gets the spell at level 3 are as follows:[code]Exactly X rounds0&nbsp; &nbsp; 1&nbsp; &nbsp; 2&nbsp; &nbsp; 3&nbsp; &nbsp; 4&nbsp; &nbsp; 540.00&nbsp; &nbsp; 24.00&nbsp; &nbsp; 14.40&nbsp; &nbsp; 8.64&nbsp; &nbsp; 5.18&nbsp; &nbsp; 3.1145.00&nbsp; &nbsp; 24.75&nbsp; &nbsp; 13.61&nbsp; &nbsp; 7.49&nbsp; &nbsp; 4.12&nbsp; &nbsp; 2.2650.00&nbsp; &nbsp; 25.00&nbsp; &nbsp; 12.50&nbsp; &nbsp; 6.25&nbsp; &nbsp; 3.13&nbsp; &nbsp; 1.56X or more rounds0&nbsp; &nbsp; 1&nbsp; &nbsp; 2&nbsp; &nbsp; 3&nbsp; &nbsp; 4&nbsp; &nbsp; 5&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 100.00&nbsp; &nbsp; 60.00&nbsp; &nbsp; 36.00&nbsp; &nbsp; 21.60&nbsp; &nbsp; 12.96&nbsp; &nbsp; 7.78100.00&nbsp; &nbsp; 55.00&nbsp; &nbsp; 30.25&nbsp; &nbsp; 16.64&nbsp; &nbsp; 9.15&nbsp; &nbsp; 5.03100.00&nbsp; &nbsp; 50.00&nbsp; &nbsp; 25.00&nbsp; &nbsp; 12.50&nbsp; &nbsp; 6.25&nbsp; &nbsp; 3.13[/code]The odds of it actually working are 50% to 60% of the time for one or more rounds.The best one can typically hope for is for 2 rounds of it working, but getting 0 rounds is more likely than getting 2 or more rounds. A significant majority of the time (64% to 75%), it will either be 0 rounds, or 1 round.On top of that, it's not worth casting this on about a third of the humanoid creatures in the monster manual. Stopping a kobold or grimlock or goblin or acolyte with this is not typically worth it unless the PC wants to capture instead of kill. So here we have a spell that affects less than 15% of the creatures in the book and most players would only really want to cast it on less than 10% of the creatures in the book.So unless a PC caster knew that he was going to encounter a lot of humanoids (like in a town adventure, or one where the PCs are specifically hunting down a tribe of Orcs), why would he prep this spell at level 3 at all?Now, this all changes at higher levels. As the spell DC goes up and Hold Person can be cast in higher level slots to affect multiple creatures, the utility of Hold Person increases significantly. But at third level when the spell can be first acquired, it's mostly a waste of a 2nd level spell prep. And even at higher level, it's typically a waste of a spell prep unless the player is wanting to cast it out of a higher level slot on multiple foes.It's not just the high risk high reward of casting a spell, it's also the high risk of the spell not being worthwhile on any given adventure day. And it's also the low reward of taking a single relatively uncommon (i.e. humanoid worth casting it on) foe out for one or two rounds which is what happens most of the time.It seems like it is a high reward spell, but that's a bit illusory. Do PCs really run into solo Archmage humanoids a lot? Or when encountering humaniods, do they typically run into a group of humanoids where the PC wizard is betting his action for one round to possibly take out a single NPC for 0 (45%), 1 (25%), 2 (14%) or more (16%) rounds with one of his highest level slots?</blockquote>

[QUOTE="KarinsDad, post: 6409982, member: 2011"] Except now you are comparing 5E Encounter abilities with 5E Daily abilities. Tell that to the thousands of kobolds that have already died in 5E from a single weapon attack. :erm: Actually, I totally get the high risk, high reward aspect of it and the fact that there should always be a chance for the spell to fail. But, let's take Hold Person as an example. There are 25 humanoid races and 71 humanoid entries (25 of which come from the NPC appendix) in the Monster Manual. There are ~485 total creatures. So less then 15% of all creatures are humanoid. The vast majority of those humanoids (i.e. almost all) have a Wisdom save in the +0 to +2 range. The odds of the spell working 0 rounds (i.e. not at all), 1 round, and so on when the PC gets the spell at level 3 are as follows: [code] Exactly X rounds 0 1 2 3 4 5 40.00 24.00 14.40 8.64 5.18 3.11 45.00 24.75 13.61 7.49 4.12 2.26 50.00 25.00 12.50 6.25 3.13 1.56 X or more rounds 0 1 2 3 4 5 100.00 60.00 36.00 21.60 12.96 7.78 100.00 55.00 30.25 16.64 9.15 5.03 100.00 50.00 25.00 12.50 6.25 3.13 [/code] The odds of it actually working are 50% to 60% of the time for one or more rounds. The best one can typically hope for is for 2 rounds of it working, but getting 0 rounds is more likely than getting 2 or more rounds. A significant majority of the time (64% to 75%), it will either be 0 rounds, or 1 round. On top of that, it's not worth casting this on about a third of the humanoid creatures in the monster manual. Stopping a kobold or grimlock or goblin or acolyte with this is not typically worth it unless the PC wants to capture instead of kill. So here we have a spell that affects less than 15% of the creatures in the book and most players would only really want to cast it on less than 10% of the creatures in the book. So unless a PC caster knew that he was going to encounter a lot of humanoids (like in a town adventure, or one where the PCs are specifically hunting down a tribe of Orcs), why would he prep this spell at level 3 at all? Now, this all changes at higher levels. As the spell DC goes up and Hold Person can be cast in higher level slots to affect multiple creatures, the utility of Hold Person increases significantly. But at third level when the spell can be first acquired, it's mostly a waste of a 2nd level spell prep. And even at higher level, it's typically a waste of a spell prep unless the player is wanting to cast it out of a higher level slot on multiple foes. It's not just the high risk high reward of casting a spell, it's also the high risk of the spell not being worthwhile on any given adventure day. And it's also the low reward of taking a single relatively uncommon (i.e. humanoid worth casting it on) foe out for one or two rounds which is what happens most of the time. It seems like it is a high reward spell, but that's a bit illusory. Do PCs really run into solo Archmage humanoids a lot? Or when encountering humaniods, do they typically run into a group of humanoids where the PC wizard is betting his action for one round to possibly take out a single NPC for 0 (45%), 1 (25%), 2 (14%) or more (16%) rounds with one of his highest level slots? [/QUOTE]

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