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<blockquote data-quote="Spinachcat" data-source="post: 4159120" data-attributes="member: 37588">Your theory falls apart because it is based on an absolutely wrong assumption.&nbsp; 3e never sold close to AD&amp;D 1e.&nbsp;&nbsp; They would be lucky if they had 50% of the sales of AD&amp;D with everything 3.0 and 3.5.&nbsp;&nbsp; TSR did not have to be smart.&nbsp; All they had to do in the early 80s was keep books in print. Sadly, unless WotC gets really aggressive with long term marketing, 4e won't do any better than 3e...maybe less. The analogy of a new album or a sequel does not fit.&nbsp;&nbsp; Game mechanics are not art.&nbsp;&nbsp; They are math so the better comparison is old device vs. new device.&nbsp; &nbsp; OD&amp;D may be the 1965 Mustang - beloved and badass, but its 43 years old and you can't get parts for it and you can't just buy one at your local dealership.&nbsp;&nbsp; Thus, people get all excited about the 2008 Mustang which has the newest technology and its easy to get one at the dealers.They don't matter.&nbsp;&nbsp; They join the pile called &quot;not the audience&quot; and life goes one.&nbsp;&nbsp; Maybe they will buy the minis and map tiles, but they are no longer the core audience.&nbsp; Once I gave up on 3e, I did not matter as a WotC customer.&nbsp;&nbsp; There was nothing 3e could do to make me buy their product.&nbsp;&nbsp; You can only market to people who possibly have interest in your product. &nbsp;They have the OGL and bazillion third party products created over the last 8 years.&nbsp;&nbsp; There will be small publishers (see RPGnow) who will keep making 3.5 products for years.&nbsp;&nbsp; Paizo going to try 3.75 and maybe those products will be compatible enough for 3e fans. &nbsp;When their DM says &quot;Screw this noise, I am running 4e!&quot;, then the players will change.&nbsp;&nbsp; Or when the players say &quot;We want to play 4e or we are bailing&quot;, then the DM will change.If both DM and players are okay with 3e, then why should they change?&nbsp;&nbsp; I still run OD&amp;D and I see no reason to abandon that even though I am excited to see 4e. Easy.&nbsp;&nbsp; Did you like Star Wars?&nbsp;&nbsp; Phantom Menace is your chance to see more Star Wars.&nbsp;&nbsp; Yeah, it may not be as good as the old Star Wars, but you are going either watch the same movie again for the 200th time or you can see something new instead.&nbsp;&nbsp; BTW, for all the kvetching about Jar Jar Rastaman, both Attack of the Clones and Revenge of the Sith made insane profits and EVERY person I know who whined about how Jar Jar ruined everything can also tell me how the two additional sequels ruined everything too...in detail...from their multiple viewings...on the DVDs they own. &nbsp;Defensive won't save them.&nbsp;&nbsp; 4e is coming with Tide of Iron and Magic Missiles that do not stop!&nbsp; While the 3e fans are figuring the math on their Power Attack, the 4e fans will be moshing their skulls with encounter powerz!&nbsp;&nbsp; Plus, even us 1st level 4e fans have way more hit points than most 5th level 3e fans and we move on the diagonal!&nbsp;&nbsp; <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f60e.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":cool:" title="Cool&nbsp; &nbsp; :cool:"&nbsp; data-smilie="6"data-shortname=":cool:" /></blockquote>

[QUOTE="Spinachcat, post: 4159120, member: 37588"] Your theory falls apart because it is based on an absolutely wrong assumption. 3e never sold close to AD&D 1e. They would be lucky if they had 50% of the sales of AD&D with everything 3.0 and 3.5. TSR did not have to be smart. All they had to do in the early 80s was keep books in print. Sadly, unless WotC gets really aggressive with long term marketing, 4e won't do any better than 3e...maybe less. The analogy of a new album or a sequel does not fit. Game mechanics are not art. They are math so the better comparison is old device vs. new device. OD&D may be the 1965 Mustang - beloved and badass, but its 43 years old and you can't get parts for it and you can't just buy one at your local dealership. Thus, people get all excited about the 2008 Mustang which has the newest technology and its easy to get one at the dealers. They don't matter. They join the pile called "not the audience" and life goes one. Maybe they will buy the minis and map tiles, but they are no longer the core audience. Once I gave up on 3e, I did not matter as a WotC customer. There was nothing 3e could do to make me buy their product. You can only market to people who possibly have interest in your product. They have the OGL and bazillion third party products created over the last 8 years. There will be small publishers (see RPGnow) who will keep making 3.5 products for years. Paizo going to try 3.75 and maybe those products will be compatible enough for 3e fans. When their DM says "Screw this noise, I am running 4e!", then the players will change. Or when the players say "We want to play 4e or we are bailing", then the DM will change. If both DM and players are okay with 3e, then why should they change? I still run OD&D and I see no reason to abandon that even though I am excited to see 4e. Easy. Did you like Star Wars? Phantom Menace is your chance to see more Star Wars. Yeah, it may not be as good as the old Star Wars, but you are going either watch the same movie again for the 200th time or you can see something new instead. BTW, for all the kvetching about Jar Jar Rastaman, both Attack of the Clones and Revenge of the Sith made insane profits and EVERY person I know who whined about how Jar Jar ruined everything can also tell me how the two additional sequels ruined everything too...in detail...from their multiple viewings...on the DVDs they own. Defensive won't save them. 4e is coming with Tide of Iron and Magic Missiles that do not stop! While the 3e fans are figuring the math on their Power Attack, the 4e fans will be moshing their skulls with encounter powerz! Plus, even us 1st level 4e fans have way more hit points than most 5th level 3e fans and we move on the diagonal! :cool: [/QUOTE]

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