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Message: <blockquote data-quote="innerdude" data-source="post: 6281614" data-attributes="member: 85870">I think there's basically two scenarios that I could see playing out with the 5e release.1. IF THE RULESET IS GOOD TO VERY GOOD -- 5e has a solid, if unspectacular product release, followed by a solid, if unspectacular run of approximately 5-6 years of active support. Wizards of the Coast makes a mild-to-moderate profit on the RPG product line. 5e finds a solid middle ground between the 3e / Pathfinder and 4e crowds, getting players to actively play the ruleset, even if wholesale "adoption" of 5e as the "preferred" edition is somewhat rare.It sort of becomes the standard bearer of the conversation of, "Well, what should we play for our next campaign?" "Well, there's always D&D 5e." Old 4e Player: "Hmmm, I guess I'm okay with that."Old Pathfinder Player: "Yeah, I think I'm good with that." 1e / OSR Player: "Well, it still ain't Gygax, but it ain't half bad. I'm down."A lot of groups that formerly split coming back together for at least a little while to enjoy a more "communal" atmosphere with 5e. Third-party publishers lend their support to it, and a healthy, if still marginally fragmented community builds around it. At that point, it's then just a question of how long WotC lets the ball roll until they decide to start making 6e. 2. IF 5E IS SUB-PAR, OR INCOHERENT ---Then I could definitely see 5e being a "death knell." After the initial "rush" to "check out the new shiny," all three major player-base contingencies simply shrug their shoulders and go back to what they've been playing. 4e player: "Hmmmm, they tried to do something interesting, I guess, but still too unbalanced, and not enough interesting things for fighters to do." 3e player: "The character choices aren't robust enough, and there's still too much '4e' going on for me to really like it. 1e / OSR: "It seems to emulate 1e reasonably well . . . but by golly, I've just barely picked up my 1e and OD&D deluxe reprints, so why don't I just play those instead?"At that point, 5e becomes the "forgotten" edition. As sales for it stagnate, 3PPs ditch it to go back to the still-widely supported Pathfinder and OGL. The 4th Edition players double-down on the eBay resale market, and hang on to their DDI subscriptions for dear life. The Grognards keep doing what they've always done---playing whatever edition of D&D suits their fancy. In 3-4 years, Hasbro sees the writing on the wall, and doesn't want to commit to fronting the R&D costs for creating a new edition. The "Core 3" books stay in print in minimal runs, though Hasbro makes no major push for distribution. Other than the occasional board game or video game, the Dungeons and Dragons brand remains quiet for the next decade, possibly two.</blockquote>

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