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Message: <blockquote data-quote="two" data-source="post: 4884281" data-attributes="member: 9002">I don't think I made myself quite clear.  I'll illustrate with a simple example.You are fighting a monster 1 on 1.  Monster had 100 HP.  You do 15 DPR with no Power Attack (PA), you do 10 with PA.  This DPR does not include a presumed -2 to hit (in our example) for the PA (so it's not really DPR, it's average damage per hit, but you get the idea).It takes you 7 rounds to kill the monster if you hit every round with PA.It takes you 10 rounds to kill the monster without using PA.That's a net savings of 3 rounds, which is substantial.(again, ignores the -2 to hit)Unfortunately, that -2 to hit really sucks when you have power attack.  It means that you are gonna miss 2/20 or 1/10 of the time when going against a static AC.So what is the chance that 7 otherwise successful hits will generate a miss because of the -2?  Around 47%.  So roughly 1 time in 2, one of those 7 blows that would have hit except for the -2 will instead be a miss, making it require another round of hitting to take down the monster.  It's still a huge advantage, however. With PA you get the job done in 7.5 rounds instead of 10.The problem here is that in D&D you don't stand there for 10 rounds fighting a solo.  If you are up against the 100 HP monster and you are doing 15 instead of 10, what is the chance this will drop the monster sooner than without using it, given that you are fighting as a party?This is incredibly party-specific, but I suppose I can estimate/guess.With 4 pals and yourself... let's see.  You are doing 15.  Let's say striker does 20, defender does 10, other 2 PCs do 15 like you.  They are all piling on to the 100 HP monster (solo) just like you, but they don't have power attack.  They whale away as best they know how.With 5 PC's doing on average 15 per round, you will drop the monster in 2 round if everyone hits.  Let's assume 50% hitting.  So Party does 15 * 4 / 2 = 30 per round, and you contribute 15/2 = 7 (not 7.5 because of the -2 to hit).  Total for you and party is 37 per round.Monster dies on round 3 on average, as the party deals out 111 HP of damage.What happens if you don't use power attack? You are doing 5 per round instead of 7, and do 2*3 = 6 less overall, which results in the monster dying on round 3 after 111 - 6 = 105.  That's really close.  But it still makes no difference.  Monster dies on round 3 either way.No what's the chance that the party will have done between 100 and 105 by round 3?  100-105 is the "sweet spot" where power attack makes the difference between killing the monster a round early or not.This is a probability question I'm not capable of answering, really.  Damage is done on a bell curve (party damage, overall), clumping around the average DPR.  If people roll lower than expected, you might end up with 104 damage after round 3.  If they roll higher than average, they might have done 130 and power attack simply does not matter since the party is doing a lot better than expected.Roughly, I'd say that to get a result of 103, for example, the average DPR would have to be 34.3 instead of 37, for 3 instances running.  How likely is that?  Call a statistician, I can't do that even as a guess.  But it's a number I'm unlikely to calculate at the table.  And I don't think it's that big.DPR is extremely overrated in D&D as far as I can tell, since it is a game of discrete battles instead of long-term attrition.  When higher DPR "wins" is when it stops one of these discrete battles a round or more sooner.  When it does not matter is when it fails to do this (i.e. it simply contributed to overkill, or caused the attacker to miss too much).It would be neat if somebody who is actually good at Excel could run some really simple battles with a party + 1 PC using or not using Power Attack, with the focus being upon #rounds required to KiLL BADDIE.</blockquote>

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