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<blockquote data-quote="ondali" data-source="post: 4279141" data-attributes="member: 28427">In order for a character to make a skill challenge with a 50% chance, its needs to have a 65% chance for each roll. this corresponds to the fact that you need twice as many success as failures. if you would need 3 times as many success as failures you would need to have a 75% chance of success for each roll to have a 50% chance of making the challengeStorminator was right in that there are only 2 scenario's that enable a single character to win it, 4 times succes in 4 or rolls or 1 failure in 5 rolls.The result changes 25.08% to 29,65%. This doesn't change the fact that&nbsp; I agree with the basic conclusion that a medium skill challenge for a single character are way too difficult.warning: heavy math
You've got the basic idea of combinations and you are right that C(17 rolls, 12 desired) = 6188
but the calculation should be the sum of&nbsp; 
C(17 rolls, 12 desired) = 6188 *.55^12 *.45^5&nbsp; &nbsp; =&nbsp; &nbsp; 0,087491
C(16 rolls, 12 desired) = 1820 *.55^12 *.45^4&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; =&nbsp;&nbsp; 0,057184 
C(15 rolls, 12 desired) = 455 *.55^12 *.45^3&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; =&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0,031769 
C(14 rolls, 12 desired) = 91 *.55^12 *.45^2&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; =&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 0,014119 
C(13 rolls, 12 desired) = 13 * .55^12 *.45^1&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; =&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 0,004482&nbsp; 
C(12 rolls, 12 desired) = 1 * .55^12&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; =&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 0,000345which sums up to results in 19,53% chance of making that challengestill not really feasible although 5% higher than you're calculations.The idea of skill challenges works nicely as i've seen it for example in th closing the rift for Kots, where you add some singular easy rolls for a made difficult roll. this gives perfect roleplaying parts. <a href="http://www.wizards.com/default.asp?x=dnd/4dnd/20080522b" target="_blank">http://www.wizards.com/default.asp?x=dnd/4dnd/20080522b</a></blockquote>

[QUOTE="ondali, post: 4279141, member: 28427"] In order for a character to make a skill challenge with a 50% chance, its needs to have a 65% chance for each roll. this corresponds to the fact that you need twice as many success as failures. if you would need 3 times as many success as failures you would need to have a 75% chance of success for each roll to have a 50% chance of making the challenge Storminator was right in that there are only 2 scenario's that enable a single character to win it, 4 times succes in 4 or rolls or 1 failure in 5 rolls. The result changes 25.08% to 29,65%. This doesn't change the fact that I agree with the basic conclusion that a medium skill challenge for a single character are way too difficult. warning: heavy math [INDENT] You've got the basic idea of combinations and you are right that C(17 rolls, 12 desired) = 6188 but the calculation should be the sum of C(17 rolls, 12 desired) = 6188 *.55^12 *.45^5 = 0,087491 C(16 rolls, 12 desired) = 1820 *.55^12 *.45^4 = 0,057184 C(15 rolls, 12 desired) = 455 *.55^12 *.45^3 = 0,031769 C(14 rolls, 12 desired) = 91 *.55^12 *.45^2 = 0,014119 C(13 rolls, 12 desired) = 13 * .55^12 *.45^1 = 0,004482 C(12 rolls, 12 desired) = 1 * .55^12 = 0,000345[/INDENT] which sums up to results in 19,53% chance of making that challenge still not really feasible although 5% higher than you're calculations. The idea of skill challenges works nicely as i've seen it for example in th closing the rift for Kots, where you add some singular easy rolls for a made difficult roll. this gives perfect roleplaying parts. [URL=http://www.wizards.com/default.asp?x=dnd/4dnd/20080522b]http://www.wizards.com/default.asp?x=dnd/4dnd/20080522b[/URL] [/QUOTE]

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