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<blockquote data-quote="pemerton" data-source="post: 4280831" data-attributes="member: 42582">My maths has been weakened by the passage of years, but assuming a 50/50 chance of success on each check, and just plotting out a probability tree for a Complexity 1 challenge, I get&nbsp; that the odds of success are 6/32, or a bit less than 20% (1/16 of 4 successes straight away, plus 1 chance each in 32 of having the single fail on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th roll). To bring the overall chance up to 75% is going to require quite a good deal more than a 50% chance on each check.At 60% chance of success per check, my probability tree with a bit of handwaving to speed things up suggests 1053/3125, or somewhat over 30%, as the overall chance of success for Complexity 1.At 80% chance of success per check, I make it 2304/3125, or a little under 75%.An 80% chance of hitting DC 20 requires a bonus of +15 - but at that point it becomes automatic due to taking 10, doesn't it?If taking 10 is ruled out, then we're looking at +4 from stat, +5 from training, let's say +1 from level (as the DCs are meant to apply to levels 1-3) and then a miscellaneous +5 (+3 focus, +2 circumstance or aid another?).At level 30, an 80% chance to hit DC 34 requires a +29: let's say +6 from stat, +5 from training, +15 from level and then a miscellaneous +3 (focus, or a magic item and/or a circumstance bonus).So I'm not sure that the numbers are wrong, just that 1st level PCs seem to be victims of their lack of level, feats and magic items.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="pemerton, post: 4280831, member: 42582"] My maths has been weakened by the passage of years, but assuming a 50/50 chance of success on each check, and just plotting out a probability tree for a Complexity 1 challenge, I get that the odds of success are 6/32, or a bit less than 20% (1/16 of 4 successes straight away, plus 1 chance each in 32 of having the single fail on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th roll). To bring the overall chance up to 75% is going to require quite a good deal more than a 50% chance on each check. At 60% chance of success per check, my probability tree with a bit of handwaving to speed things up suggests 1053/3125, or somewhat over 30%, as the overall chance of success for Complexity 1. At 80% chance of success per check, I make it 2304/3125, or a little under 75%. An 80% chance of hitting DC 20 requires a bonus of +15 - but at that point it becomes automatic due to taking 10, doesn't it? If taking 10 is ruled out, then we're looking at +4 from stat, +5 from training, let's say +1 from level (as the DCs are meant to apply to levels 1-3) and then a miscellaneous +5 (+3 focus, +2 circumstance or aid another?). At level 30, an 80% chance to hit DC 34 requires a +29: let's say +6 from stat, +5 from training, +15 from level and then a miscellaneous +3 (focus, or a magic item and/or a circumstance bonus). So I'm not sure that the numbers are wrong, just that 1st level PCs seem to be victims of their lack of level, feats and magic items. [/QUOTE]

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