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<blockquote data-quote="Eldorian" data-source="post: 4284716" data-attributes="member: 10504">Dude.&nbsp; You have NO idea what you're talking about.&nbsp; None.&nbsp; Everyone in that thread who performed correct math (including me, the OP, and a guy who ran some probability trees) was using Bernoulli processes, which EXPLICITLY take into account the fact that each die roll is independent of all others.&nbsp; From wiki:&nbsp; In probability and statistics, a Bernoulli process is a discrete-time stochastic process consisting of a sequence of independent random variables taking values over two symbols. Prosaically, a Bernoulli process is coin flipping, possibly with an unfair coin. A variable in such a sequence may be called a Bernoulli variable.Do you even have any training, formal or otherwise, in counting and probability?&nbsp; I'm guessing the answer is no.For the OP of this thread.&nbsp; You're wrong.&nbsp; The OP of the other thread gave every roll a +10 at first level.&nbsp; That is a corner case favoring the players.&nbsp; Your typical PC party isn't going to have every character having a +10 in a relevant skill to the challenge.&nbsp; It gets worse as players level up and the discrepancy between their primary two stats and the rest of their stats increases.&nbsp; Even if a party member has a power or item that helps for the challenge, unless he does EVERYTHING for the challenge, all he does statistically is bring his party closer to the corner case of everyone having a relevant skill with a max stat.Even if you allow very odd usage of skills to help, I fail to see how the typical fighter helps resolve a diplomatic exchange unless he can succeed without using his primary stats.&nbsp; Athletics, Endurance, Heal, Intimidate, and Streetwise.&nbsp; The last two are for skills that are based on a stat he does not need for anything else, and are the only two that might help when talking to the duke, for example.&nbsp; Unless the duke is impressed by his jumping or climbing ability or something...&nbsp; &quot;Hey look, Your Grace, if I can hold my breath for 3 minutes, you have to help us, right?&quot;Personally, I'd like it to be that if a character uses a power or item to help with the challenge, then that player is almost guaranteed to provide only successes, rather than just go from a 50% failure rate to a 25%.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Eldorian, post: 4284716, member: 10504"] Dude. You have NO idea what you're talking about. None. Everyone in that thread who performed correct math (including me, the OP, and a guy who ran some probability trees) was using Bernoulli processes, which EXPLICITLY take into account the fact that each die roll is independent of all others. From wiki: In probability and statistics, a Bernoulli process is a discrete-time stochastic process consisting of a sequence of independent random variables taking values over two symbols. Prosaically, a Bernoulli process is coin flipping, possibly with an unfair coin. A variable in such a sequence may be called a Bernoulli variable. Do you even have any training, formal or otherwise, in counting and probability? I'm guessing the answer is no. For the OP of this thread. You're wrong. The OP of the other thread gave every roll a +10 at first level. That is a corner case favoring the players. Your typical PC party isn't going to have every character having a +10 in a relevant skill to the challenge. It gets worse as players level up and the discrepancy between their primary two stats and the rest of their stats increases. Even if a party member has a power or item that helps for the challenge, unless he does EVERYTHING for the challenge, all he does statistically is bring his party closer to the corner case of everyone having a relevant skill with a max stat. Even if you allow very odd usage of skills to help, I fail to see how the typical fighter helps resolve a diplomatic exchange unless he can succeed without using his primary stats. Athletics, Endurance, Heal, Intimidate, and Streetwise. The last two are for skills that are based on a stat he does not need for anything else, and are the only two that might help when talking to the duke, for example. Unless the duke is impressed by his jumping or climbing ability or something... "Hey look, Your Grace, if I can hold my breath for 3 minutes, you have to help us, right?" Personally, I'd like it to be that if a character uses a power or item to help with the challenge, then that player is almost guaranteed to provide only successes, rather than just go from a 50% failure rate to a 25%. [/QUOTE]

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