Smaug the dragon on Forbes billionaires list

[Thagdal]

That article put people ahead of Richie Rich! Thats impossible.

 

[Alzrius]

Ha!

Okay, I know that by this point I've taken this waaay too far, and that nobody likely cares anymore, but I managed to recalculate Smaug's hoard based on the value of the coinage in D&D (as opposed to the value of the assumed coinage in the previous calculation).

The key was that the density of gold (and silver) are already known (gold being 19,300 kilograms per cubic meter, and silver being 10,490 kilograms per cubic meter), so since we know the mass of the coins (140 grains if we're assuming that fifty coins equals an avoirdupois pound; or 115.2 grains if we're assuming that fifty coins equals a troy pound), we can then calculate the volume of a given coin of each metal. Since we already know the total volume of Smaug's hoard (741.5 cubic feet for gold, and another 741.5 cubic feet for silver, as detailed above), we can plug the numbers in and figure out the results!

Remember, we're assigning silver a grain value of one-tenth gold's grain value (rounded to the nearest cent), so that it matches with D&D's listed value for gold and silver coinage.

First, the avoirdupois measurements:

The volume of one D&D 3.5 gold coin at 140 grains is 0.000016599750447490626 cubic feet. This gives us 44,669,346 gold coins in Smaug's hoard; we'll round this up to 44.7 million. Gold is $3.07 USD per grain, so one gold coin is $429.80. Multiply this by 44.7 million to get $19,212,060,000 USD in gold coins.

The volume of one D&D 3.5 silver coin at 140 grains is 0.000030541008926269694 cubic feet. This gives us 24,278,831 silver coins in Smaug's hoard; we'll round this up to 24.3 million. The adjusted value of one grain of silver in D&D 3.5 is $0.31 per grain, so one silver coin is $43.40 USD. Multiply this by 24.3 million to get $1,054,620,000 USD in silver coins.

$19,212,060,000 USD in gold coins plus $1,054,620,000 USD in silver coins equals $20,266,680,000 USD in coins in Smaug's hoard; round this up to $20,267,000,000 USD. Add in the $9,690,000,000 USD in diamonds embedded in his body, and get $29,957,000,000 USD. Multiply by 1.076923 and then subtract $29,957,000,000 to get $2,304,382,311 USD for the Arkenstone, round down to $2,304,000,000 USD. Add that to $29,957,000,000 USD to get a total avoirdupois D&D 3.5 hoard value of $32,261,000,000 USD.

Interestingly, the troy measurements come out almost exactly identical (which makes sense, since the total volume of the hoard doesn't change):

The volume of one D&D 3.5 gold coin at 115.2 grains is 0.000013659223225363716 cubic feet. This gives us 54,285,664 gold coins in Smaug's hoard; we'll round this up to 54.3 million. Gold is $3.07 USD per grain, so one gold coin is $353.66 USD, rounded up to $354 USD. Multiply this by 54.3 million to get $19,222,200,000 USD in gold coins; round down to $19,222,000,000 USD in gold coins.

The volume of one D&D 3.5 silver coin at 115.2 grains is 0.000025130887345044778 cubic feet. This gives us 29,505,524 silver coins in Smaug's hoard; we'll round this down to 29.5 million. The adjusted value of one grain of silver in D&D 3.5 is $0.31 per grain, so one silver coin is $35.71 USD, rounded up to $36 USD. Multiply this by 29.5 million to get $1,062,000,000 USD in silver coins.

$19,222,000,000 USD in gold coins plus $1,062,000,000 USD in silver coins equals $20,284,000,000 USD in coins in Smaug's hoard. Add in $9,690,000,000 USD in diamonds, and get $29,974,000,000 USD. Multiply by 1.076923 and then subtract $29,974,000,000 to get $2,305,690,002 USD for the Arkenstone, rounded up to $2,305,000,000 USD. Add to $29,974,000,000 to get a total troy D&D 3.5 hoard value of $32,279,000,000 USD.

So if we make a direct comparison between Smaug's hoard and a D&D 3.5 great red wyrm's hoard, Smaug wins by an even bigger margin than we thought.

In troy, Smaug has $32,279,000,000 USD to the great red wyrm's $595,000,000 USD (rounding up to the nearest million; see post #6).

In avoirdupois, Smaug has $32,261,000,000 USD to the great red wyrm's $722,000,000 (rounding down to the nearest million, see post #6).

So what can we determine from all of this? That clearly, Smaug was involved in some sort of insider-trading scandal that would have rocked Middle Earth to the core had it ever come out.

 

[Alzrius]

Assuming Smaug is a great wyrm, CR26, with triple standard treasure, his hoard is valued at 80k gp (for being 20th level); plus 12 major magics at 40k gp each for being 6 levels over 20th; all that tripled.

Looking back over things, where did you come up with the 40,000 gp value for the random magic items? The section on treasure just gives a number of magic items to assign, without anything regarding their gp value.

 

[Theo R Cwithin]

Looking back over things, where did you come up with the 40,000 gp value for the random magic items? The section on treasure just gives a number of magic items to assign, without anything regarding their gp value.

Table: Average Treasure Results gives the average value of a "major magic item" as 40k gp.

Now I'm a little curious what the result for a D&D great wyrm hoard would be if it were maximized (ie, if we assumed it rolled all 100's or other max rolls at treasure generation time)? Especially for the magics, since they vary so widely in value. A dragon as discerning as Smaug would have only the choicest and priciest ones, I'm sure.

 

[Super Pony]

Anybody want to take a crack at what the Shire might be worth?

I thought it was interesting that the Frobes article discounted, "other valuable items in Smaug&#8217s hoard &#8211 rare suits of armor and so on," when Gandulf claimed that Bilbo's mithril shirt was "greater than the value of the whole Shire and everything in it."

In calculating the value of the Shire you'd want to back out any modern concept of the value of land itself. In more ancient times land was pretty unimportant next to what it actually produced (food, rare metals, precious gems, etc) as well as the number of able bodied people around to shake down for cash (crops/taxes) and march off to battle (yay fiefdoms).

For moving forward with the Shire's worth you'd have to find a real world analogue for the it's size and export potential. I personally think that Wales inspired some of Prof. Tolkein's Shire imagery so let's try that (maybe pre-industrial revolution Wales since post IR Wales is essentially Sauron winning and enslaving the Hobbits to mine copper and iron ). There wasn't much purpose to store things for years on end in an agricultural based economy like the Shire so we could simplify it to a single year's GDP (because we're already grasping at very thin straws .

A fourm discussion over at Minas Tirith tosses some numbers around for the population of the Shire and I like the 199,000 number best (why? because it's fiction and it sounds exact!). I then stumbled accross a study of income inequality . I extracted some data from the 1688 England and Wales table on pg 14 of that document (the types of hobbits living in the Shire exclude the nobility for example). After applying some inflation wizardry and other excel-like magic I came up with an annual GDP of about $102,449,270 for the entire shire.

Now to itemize the "everything in it" portion of the statement. You figure the average Halfling accumulates 5% of their annual income in various odds and ends be it collections of pipe weed, fine carpentry, award wining tulips...whatever. Furthermore you let the average max lifespan of a Hobbit be 85 years (probably generous but...whateves...this is all thinly veiled sillyness anyway). Of that 85 years they spend 30 growing up (discounted from owning anything), 30 collecting things (handmedowns, family items, personal items, rare books, etc), and the last 15 living off their kids (not buying a lot of extra crap...just smoking pipe weed and hanging out at the pub). That puts the possessional wealth of the Shire at $153,673,905.

My final stab at how much that mithril shirt was worth? $256,123,175 or close to 1% (after rounding) of the worth of the most recently calculated dragon's treasure.

My math is right but my logic? If we all believe hard enough it'll be true!

Edit: we can also assume that since Bilbo was promised 1/13th of the total treasure he should have returned to the Shire with over $2billion dollars...

 

[Relique du Madde]

You are forgetting that Bilbo had to hire help to transport that treasure and to protect it form bandits. I'm' certain that word spread that a bunch of dwarves and hobbits killed Smaug which caused the hazard pay to go up dramatically. That's not even mentioning the fact that some of those waggons might have been lost in transit or damaged due to natural disasters (sorry no teliport).

 

[Alzrius]

Table: Average Treasure Results gives the average value of a "major magic item" as 40k gp.

Ah, so it does. I was just looking at the addendum to Table: Treasure where it just said to add more magic items for the treasures of creatures in excess of CR 20. It makes sense to assume that they're all major magic items.

Hm, and in fact, this makes me realize that despite all the calculating I've done, I haven't calculated the gp value of Smaug's hoard in D&D 3.5 gp value!

Clearly, that can't stand, so here we go!

First, the values in avoirdupois: We've already established that Smaug's hoard would have (with some rounding) 44.7 million gp and 24.3 million sp in raw coinage. Since the silver coins have a gp value of 1/10, they're worth 2.43 million gp, which we'll round down again to 2.4 million. With the actual gold coins, that's a total value of 47.1 million gp in coins.

Now the slightly harder part, the diamonds. Smaug had fifty diamonds per scale on 1,938 scales. But what's the gp value of the individual diamonds? Well, we priced their USD at $100,000 each. Since we established previously that one D&D 3.5 gold coin is, in avoirdupois, $429.80, we divide 100,000 by 429.8 to determine that each diamond is worth 232.67 gp. We'll round that up to 233 gp each.

Fifty diamonds per scale times 1,938 scales is 96,900 diamonds. At 233 gp each, that's a total of 22,577,700 gp. Again, we'll round that up, to an even 22.6 million gp worth of diamonds.

And finally, what's the Arkenstone's value? Well, 47.1 million gp in coins plus 22.6 million gp in diamonds is 69.7 million gp, multiplied by 1.076923 and then subtracting the 69.7 million from the result gets us the answer. In this case, the Arkenstone of Thrain is worth 5,361,533.1 gp, which we'll round to 5.4 million gp.

So altogether, the total value of Smaug's hoard (in avoirdupois) in D&D 3.5 gold piece value is 47.1 million gp in coins plus 22.6 million gp in diamonds plus 5.4 million gp for the Arkenstone, for a grand total of 75.1 million gp! Far and away more than the ruby rod of Asmodeus!

Now, let's repeat those calculations for the troy measurements:

Given the smaller grains per gold piece, under this method of measuring we found Smaug's hoard had (rounded values of) 54.3 million gp and 29.5 million sp. Again, the silver pieces have a 1/10 value, so they're worth 2.95 million gp, which we'll round up to 3 million gp. So the total coin value of Smaug's hoard in troy is 57.3 million gp.

The diamonds also use slightly altered calculations. There are still fifty diamonds on 1,938 scales (for a total of 96,900 diamonds), and each diamond is still worth $100,000 USD. However, under the troy measurements we determined that a D&D 3.5 gold piece is only worth $354 USD. Dividing 100,000 by 354 determines that each diamond is worth 282.48 gp. It's close, but let's round that down to a flat 282 gp per diamond. Multiply that by the number of diamonds, and the total value comes to 27,325,800 gp, which we'll round down to 27.3 million gp in diamonds.

And last but not least, the Arkenstone. Once again, we add the two previous totals (57.3 million plus 27.3 million equals 84.6 million), multiply by 1.076923, and then subtract 84.6 million to get a total value of 6,507,685.8 gp, rounded down slightly to get an even 6.5 million gp for the Arkenstone.

So in total, the troy value of Smaug's hoard in D&D 3.5 is 57.3 million gp in coins plus 27.3 million in diamonds plus 6.5 million for the Arkenstone, for a combined value of 91.1 million gp! Quite a bit more substantial than its avoirdupois counterpart!

Now, what kind of creature would have such a treasure? Clearly, Smaug was no mere great red wyrm...

 

[jonesy]

Edit: we can also assume that since Bilbo was promised 1/13th of the total treasure he should have returned to the Shire with over $2billion dollars...

He forfeited his share when he gave the Arkenstone to Bard, and in the end only took two small chests, one of gold and one of silver, and the mithril shirt.

Edit: although, what was actually in those chests?

 

[fireinthedust]

Smaug's horde is comparable if not larger than McDuck's. One building vs. the interior of a MOUNTAIN. It's not just the pictures, but the description: Smaug should be richer.

Thus the grain of salt comment, right?

 

[S'mon]

I would have used Smaug's length as the circumference of the hoard, not the diameter, hence "coiled" - and the gems coating his underbelly would be mostly lower value, ca 10gp each, with a smattering of 50gp, 100gp, 1000gp and possibly a few huge 5000gp diamonds. The biggest possible gems in D&D around the size of a man's head are worth 1 million gp, but I expect the Arkenstone is considerably smaller.

BTW I don't get the impression Smaug is a Great Wyrm; Mature Adult seems more likely.

Anyway, that was one silly article! By the logic applied there you could take the dimensions of Fort Knox, subtract 30% for wasted space, and declare that the US Treasury held umpteen quadrillion $ in gold reserves.