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Smaug the dragon on Forbes billionaires list
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<blockquote data-quote="Super Pony" data-source="post: 5526465" data-attributes="member: 6669292"><p>In calculating the value of the Shire you'd want to back out any modern concept of the value of land itself. In more ancient times land was pretty unimportant next to what it actually produced (food, rare metals, precious gems, etc) as well as the number of able bodied people around to shake down for cash (crops/taxes) and march off to battle (yay fiefdoms).</p><p> </p><p>For moving forward with the Shire's worth you'd have to find a real world analogue for the it's size and export potential. I personally think that Wales inspired some of Prof. Tolkein's Shire imagery so let's try that (maybe pre-industrial revolution Wales since post IR Wales is essentially Sauron winning and enslaving the Hobbits to mine copper and iron <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f61b.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":P" title="Stick out tongue :P" data-smilie="7"data-shortname=":P" />). There wasn't much purpose to store things for years on end in an agricultural based economy like the Shire so we could simplify it to a single year's GDP (because we're already grasping at very thin straws <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f642.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":)" title="Smile :)" data-smilie="1"data-shortname=":)" />. </p><p> </p><p>A fourm discussion over at <a href="http://www.minastirith.com/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=1;t=001754;p=" target="_blank">Minas Tirith </a>tosses some numbers around for the population of the Shire and I like the 199,000 number best (why? because it's fiction and it sounds exact!). I then stumbled accross a study of <a href="http://www.economics.harvard.edu/files/faculty/62_Pre-Industrial_Inequality.pdf" target="_blank">income inequality </a>. I extracted some data from the 1688 England and Wales table on pg 14 of that document (the types of hobbits living in the Shire exclude the nobility for example). After applying some inflation wizardry and other excel-like magic I came up with an annual GDP of about $102,449,270 for the entire shire.</p><p> </p><p>Now to itemize the "everything in it" portion of the statement. You figure the average Halfling accumulates 5% of their annual income in various odds and ends be it collections of pipe weed, fine carpentry, award wining tulips...whatever. Furthermore you let the average max lifespan of a Hobbit be 85 years (probably generous but...whateves...this is all thinly veiled sillyness anyway). Of that 85 years they spend 30 growing up (discounted from owning anything), 30 collecting things (handmedowns, family items, personal items, rare books, etc), and the last 15 living off their kids (not buying a lot of extra crap...just smoking pipe weed and hanging out at the pub). That puts the possessional wealth of the Shire at $153,673,905.</p><p> </p><p>My final stab at how much that mithril shirt was worth? $256,123,175 or close to 1% (after rounding) of the worth of the most recently calculated dragon's treasure.</p><p> </p><p>My math is right but my logic? If we all believe hard enough it'll be true!</p><p> </p><p>Edit: we can also assume that since Bilbo was promised 1/13th of the total treasure he should have returned to the Shire with over $2billion dollars...</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Super Pony, post: 5526465, member: 6669292"] In calculating the value of the Shire you'd want to back out any modern concept of the value of land itself. In more ancient times land was pretty unimportant next to what it actually produced (food, rare metals, precious gems, etc) as well as the number of able bodied people around to shake down for cash (crops/taxes) and march off to battle (yay fiefdoms). For moving forward with the Shire's worth you'd have to find a real world analogue for the it's size and export potential. I personally think that Wales inspired some of Prof. Tolkein's Shire imagery so let's try that (maybe pre-industrial revolution Wales since post IR Wales is essentially Sauron winning and enslaving the Hobbits to mine copper and iron :P). There wasn't much purpose to store things for years on end in an agricultural based economy like the Shire so we could simplify it to a single year's GDP (because we're already grasping at very thin straws :). A fourm discussion over at [URL="http://www.minastirith.com/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=1;t=001754;p="]Minas Tirith [/URL]tosses some numbers around for the population of the Shire and I like the 199,000 number best (why? because it's fiction and it sounds exact!). I then stumbled accross a study of [URL="http://www.economics.harvard.edu/files/faculty/62_Pre-Industrial_Inequality.pdf"]income inequality [/URL]. I extracted some data from the 1688 England and Wales table on pg 14 of that document (the types of hobbits living in the Shire exclude the nobility for example). After applying some inflation wizardry and other excel-like magic I came up with an annual GDP of about $102,449,270 for the entire shire. Now to itemize the "everything in it" portion of the statement. You figure the average Halfling accumulates 5% of their annual income in various odds and ends be it collections of pipe weed, fine carpentry, award wining tulips...whatever. Furthermore you let the average max lifespan of a Hobbit be 85 years (probably generous but...whateves...this is all thinly veiled sillyness anyway). Of that 85 years they spend 30 growing up (discounted from owning anything), 30 collecting things (handmedowns, family items, personal items, rare books, etc), and the last 15 living off their kids (not buying a lot of extra crap...just smoking pipe weed and hanging out at the pub). That puts the possessional wealth of the Shire at $153,673,905. My final stab at how much that mithril shirt was worth? $256,123,175 or close to 1% (after rounding) of the worth of the most recently calculated dragon's treasure. My math is right but my logic? If we all believe hard enough it'll be true! Edit: we can also assume that since Bilbo was promised 1/13th of the total treasure he should have returned to the Shire with over $2billion dollars... [/QUOTE]
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