Reply to thread

Message

<blockquote data-quote="Samurai" data-source="post: 4278054" data-attributes="member: 3850">Stalker will have to do that himself, but just looking at it, if 1st level characters have an average bonus of +9 on their best skills (Trained +5, Stat +4), and the Medium DC is 20, you'll need to roll an 11+ to succeed on an individual check.&nbsp; That's a 50% chance.&nbsp; (If any characters use skills they are not Trained in, or that have a lower Stat bonus, the chance goes down from there).Now, with 50/50 rolls, you'd expect that if the number of successes or failures are equal, you should have a 50/50 shot at succeeding or failing the challenge.&nbsp; (If you flip a coin 6 times, overall you should average out to 3 heads and 3 tails, if you do it enough times.)&nbsp; However, skill challenges only need half as many failures as successes.&nbsp; So, back to the coin tosses, it is easy to see that the chance of getting 2 tails before you get 4 heads is significantly higher.&nbsp; And the more times you toss the coin, the less random chance and variance, and more likely to get the average result, a 50/50 split, which = failure because you only need half as many of them.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Samurai, post: 4278054, member: 3850"] Stalker will have to do that himself, but just looking at it, if 1st level characters have an average bonus of +9 on their best skills (Trained +5, Stat +4), and the Medium DC is 20, you'll need to roll an 11+ to succeed on an individual check. That's a 50% chance. (If any characters use skills they are not Trained in, or that have a lower Stat bonus, the chance goes down from there). Now, with 50/50 rolls, you'd expect that if the number of successes or failures are equal, you should have a 50/50 shot at succeeding or failing the challenge. (If you flip a coin 6 times, overall you should average out to 3 heads and 3 tails, if you do it enough times.) However, skill challenges only need half as many failures as successes. So, back to the coin tosses, it is easy to see that the chance of getting 2 tails before you get 4 heads is significantly higher. And the more times you toss the coin, the less random chance and variance, and more likely to get the average result, a 50/50 split, which = failure because you only need half as many of them. [/QUOTE]

Verification