Menu
News
All News
Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
Pathfinder
Starfinder
Warhammer
2d20 System
Year Zero Engine
Industry News
Reviews
Dragon Reflections
White Dwarf Reflections
Columns
Weekly Digests
Weekly News Digest
Freebies, Sales & Bundles
RPG Print News
RPG Crowdfunding News
Game Content
ENterplanetary DimENsions
Mythological Figures
Opinion
Worlds of Design
Peregrine's Nest
RPG Evolution
Other Columns
From the Freelancing Frontline
Monster ENcyclopedia
WotC/TSR Alumni Look Back
4 Hours w/RSD (Ryan Dancey)
The Road to 3E (Jonathan Tweet)
Greenwood's Realms (Ed Greenwood)
Drawmij's TSR (Jim Ward)
Community
Forums & Topics
Forum List
Latest Posts
Forum list
*Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
D&D Older Editions, OSR, & D&D Variants
*TTRPGs General
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
EN Publishing
*Geek Talk & Media
Search forums
Chat/Discord
Resources
Wiki
Pages
Latest activity
Media
New media
New comments
Search media
Downloads
Latest reviews
Search resources
EN Publishing
Store
EN5ider
Adventures in ZEITGEIST
Awfully Cheerful Engine
What's OLD is NEW
Judge Dredd & The Worlds Of 2000AD
War of the Burning Sky
Level Up: Advanced 5E
Events & Releases
Upcoming Events
Private Events
Featured Events
Socials!
EN Publishing
Twitter
BlueSky
Facebook
Instagram
EN World
BlueSky
YouTube
Facebook
Twitter
Twitch
Podcast
Features
Top 5 RPGs Compiled Charts 2004-Present
Adventure Game Industry Market Research Summary (RPGs) V1.0
Ryan Dancey: Acquiring TSR
Q&A With Gary Gygax
D&D Rules FAQs
TSR, WotC, & Paizo: A Comparative History
D&D Pronunciation Guide
Million Dollar TTRPG Kickstarters
Tabletop RPG Podcast Hall of Fame
Eric Noah's Unofficial D&D 3rd Edition News
D&D in the Mainstream
D&D & RPG History
About Morrus
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles only
By:
Forums & Topics
Forum List
Latest Posts
Forum list
*Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
D&D Older Editions, OSR, & D&D Variants
*TTRPGs General
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
EN Publishing
*Geek Talk & Media
Search forums
Chat/Discord
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
Upgrade your account to a Community Supporter account and remove most of the site ads.
Community
General Tabletop Discussion
*TTRPGs General
Statistically Proving Bad Luck (Help Appreciated)
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="ichabod" data-source="post: 1020048" data-attributes="member: 1257"><p>Okay, here's what you do. Put all the numbers into excel. Type into one cell "=stdev(a1:a179)" (a1:a179 is the range your rolls are in, adjust this if they are in a different range). That gives you the standard deviation of your dice rolls. Take the mean of your die rolls (which can be calculated with "=average(a1:a179)") and subtract it from 10.5. Then multiply the result by the square root of the number of die rolls, and divide it by the standard deviation you calculated. If the number you get is less than 2, you don't have bad luck. If it is greater than 2.3, <strong>you can't confidently say that you don't have bad luck</strong>. Note that that is different than saying that you do have bad luck. If it's inbetween 2 and 2.3, it will depend on which statisticians you talk to.</p><p></p><p>A major caveat: as has been stated, if you are using the same die the whole time, you are confounding your results. The deviation from the mean may be due to the die you are using, and not your phenomenoscopic transprobability curve warping field. For the best results, use different dice from different manufacturers.</p><p></p><p>Also, the more you roll the dice, the more you are sure of the result. I'd wait until about 400 rolls before complaining too much about your bad luck. And remember, this will never tell you that you have bad luck. The best it will do, in classical statistics terminology, is fail to reject the hypothesis that your luck is normal.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="ichabod, post: 1020048, member: 1257"] Okay, here's what you do. Put all the numbers into excel. Type into one cell "=stdev(a1:a179)" (a1:a179 is the range your rolls are in, adjust this if they are in a different range). That gives you the standard deviation of your dice rolls. Take the mean of your die rolls (which can be calculated with "=average(a1:a179)") and subtract it from 10.5. Then multiply the result by the square root of the number of die rolls, and divide it by the standard deviation you calculated. If the number you get is less than 2, you don't have bad luck. If it is greater than 2.3, [b]you can't confidently say that you don't have bad luck[/b]. Note that that is different than saying that you do have bad luck. If it's inbetween 2 and 2.3, it will depend on which statisticians you talk to. A major caveat: as has been stated, if you are using the same die the whole time, you are confounding your results. The deviation from the mean may be due to the die you are using, and not your phenomenoscopic transprobability curve warping field. For the best results, use different dice from different manufacturers. Also, the more you roll the dice, the more you are sure of the result. I'd wait until about 400 rolls before complaining too much about your bad luck. And remember, this will never tell you that you have bad luck. The best it will do, in classical statistics terminology, is fail to reject the hypothesis that your luck is normal. [/QUOTE]
Insert quotes…
Verification
Post reply
Community
General Tabletop Discussion
*TTRPGs General
Statistically Proving Bad Luck (Help Appreciated)
Top