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Statistically Proving Bad Luck (Help Appreciated)
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<blockquote data-quote="Essex" data-source="post: 1020165" data-attributes="member: 2152"><p>I don't have the exact numbers, but this is a true story.</p><p></p><p>Roommate, who's an fanatic wargamer and myself who is just a newbie. Warhammer 40K. He's Orcs. I'm Blood Angels.</p><p></p><p>He outnumbers me 3.5 to 1 due to our army selection. In previous battles, our luck has been average, but he is a better tactitian and usually wins with only moderate losses at worst. </p><p></p><p>This night I decide to give it another whack. Basically what proceeds is the worst slaughter in the history or war. He loses all 70 orcs to my 20 Space Marines with my only suffering 2 casualties. </p><p></p><p>How?</p><p></p><p>Not through any skill on my part. He COULD NOT HIT, while I COULD NOT MISS. I have never seen such a battle in all my days and I have never been able to replicate that feat again. I was rolling all 1s and 2s, he was rolling all 5s and 6s. You could see the veins popping out on his forehead all through that battle. Our other roommate looked on in awe and horror as the only person he killed was ONE Space Marine in HtH and my Priest who got caught in the crossfire. </p><p></p><p>While I lack the numbers myself, my roommate is a math major and he was venting how that was that by all laws of probability he should have killed at least 3 times the number he did, just be virtue of his tactics (if one had watched the game) he should have slaughtered me. This is why I always try to win the coin toss on setup <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f609.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=";)" title="Wink ;)" data-smilie="2"data-shortname=";)" /> )</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Essex, post: 1020165, member: 2152"] I don't have the exact numbers, but this is a true story. Roommate, who's an fanatic wargamer and myself who is just a newbie. Warhammer 40K. He's Orcs. I'm Blood Angels. He outnumbers me 3.5 to 1 due to our army selection. In previous battles, our luck has been average, but he is a better tactitian and usually wins with only moderate losses at worst. This night I decide to give it another whack. Basically what proceeds is the worst slaughter in the history or war. He loses all 70 orcs to my 20 Space Marines with my only suffering 2 casualties. How? Not through any skill on my part. He COULD NOT HIT, while I COULD NOT MISS. I have never seen such a battle in all my days and I have never been able to replicate that feat again. I was rolling all 1s and 2s, he was rolling all 5s and 6s. You could see the veins popping out on his forehead all through that battle. Our other roommate looked on in awe and horror as the only person he killed was ONE Space Marine in HtH and my Priest who got caught in the crossfire. While I lack the numbers myself, my roommate is a math major and he was venting how that was that by all laws of probability he should have killed at least 3 times the number he did, just be virtue of his tactics (if one had watched the game) he should have slaughtered me. This is why I always try to win the coin toss on setup ;) ) [/QUOTE]
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