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Message: <blockquote data-quote="FrogReaver" data-source="post: 8296636" data-attributes="member: 6795602">Most complicated plans create more points of failure than redundancies - requiring more things to go right.  Plans that have redundancies tend to indicate skilled play - hedging bets as you call it below.  So I'd say that most skilled play involves complex plans, but that most complex plans aren't indicative of skilled play.I think some of it is that we fondly remember how awesome or super complex plan was when it worked and disregard the times they don't. I think that's called Selection bias.Agreed, but hedging those bets also involves hedging bets about the unknown variables of any new plan.  What's the chances something negative happens when your trying to implement your complex 'skilled play'.  This materially changes the example though.  You started out with a fireball that would kill the orcs.  Now it's a fireball that might kill the orcs.  And maybe the more important question is - why fireball at all?  These are orcs.  Is it possibly more skilled to just fight them straight up without higher level magic?  Depending on their numbers and your level and gear and what edition you are playing - it may very well be the better decision to avoid the complicated stuff and just combat through them.  Which is getting back to the heart of this - skilled play is more than complicated tactics that dominate a single encounter.  Skilled play is about achieving your goal.Depending on the precise parameters it could have been skilled play or totally unskilled play.  I can give you this, the players were attempting to play skillfully with their tactics, that doesn't mean they achieved that result though.</blockquote>

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