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<blockquote data-quote="sfedi" data-source="post: 4988147" data-attributes="member: 15746">The codeFor those who asked, here's the code:The evaluation code, which generates the text I posted:[sblock][code]| calculator result desc |desc := WriteStream on: String new.1 to: 5 do: [ :complexity | | successes failures maxNumberOfRolls |&nbsp;successes := 2 + (2 * complexity).&nbsp;failures := 3.&nbsp;maxNumberOfRolls := successes + failures.&nbsp;desc cr; cr.&nbsp;desc nextPutAll: &nbsp; 'Success chance for Skill Challenges complexity ', &nbsp; complexity printString, ' (Need ', successes printString, ' successes before ',&nbsp; failures printString, ' failures)'.&nbsp;desc cr; cr.&nbsp;0.3 to: 0.95 by: 0.05 do: [ :successRate |&nbsp; desc nextPutAll: 'Individual chance '.&nbsp; (successRate * 100) asInteger printOn: desc.&nbsp; desc nextPutAll: '%: '.&nbsp; calculator := SCCalculator &nbsp; &nbsp; failures: failures&nbsp; &nbsp; successes: successes&nbsp; &nbsp; chances: (Array new: maxNumberOfRolls withAll: successRate).&nbsp; result := calculator execute.&nbsp; (result successChance * 100) asInteger printOn: desc.&nbsp; desc nextPutAll: '%'.&nbsp; desc cr.&nbsp;].].desc contents.[/code][/sblock]Note that it is almost all text formating. The proper calculation is done here:Higher level algorithm methods:[sblock][code]SCCalculator&gt;&gt;execute&nbsp; &nbsp; &quot;Return result of the calculation&quot;&nbsp; &nbsp; | unsolvedPaths solvedPaths |&nbsp; &nbsp; unsolvedPaths := OrderedCollection new.&nbsp; &nbsp; solvedPaths := OrderedCollection new.&nbsp; &nbsp; unsolvedPaths add: SolutionPath new.&nbsp; &nbsp; [unsolvedPaths notEmpty] whileTrue: &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; [| toSolvePaths |&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; toSolvePaths := OrderedCollection new.&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; unsolvedPaths do: &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; [:solutionPath | &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; (self isSolved: solutionPath) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ifTrue: [solvedPaths add: solutionPath]&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ifFalse: [toSolvePaths addAll: (solutionPath nextPathsWithChances: self chances)]].&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; unsolvedPaths := toSolvePaths].&nbsp; &nbsp; ^SCSolutionPaths solutionPaths: solvedPathsSCCalculator&gt;&gt;isSolved: aSolutionPath &nbsp; &nbsp; ^(aSolutionPath successes = self successesNeeded) &nbsp; &nbsp; or: [aSolutionPath failures = self maxFailures].SCSolutionPaths&gt;&gt;successChance&nbsp; &nbsp; ^(self solutionPaths select: [:each | each isResult: #success]) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; inject: 0 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; into: [ :total :successPath | total + successPath probability][/code][/sblock]What this does is to generate &quot;solution paths&quot;, that is, a series of successful rolls or failed rolls in several combinations.(a path is solved if it has enough successful rolls or enough failed rolls)It collects all solution paths.It will then ask it's &quot;successChance&quot; and it will sweep all successfull outcomes and sum up their individual probabilities.How an incomplete solution path, gives it's next two solution paths, and some other helper methods:[sblock][code]SolutionPath&gt;&gt;nextPathsWithChances: chances &nbsp; &nbsp; | newPaths successPath failurePath |&nbsp; &nbsp; newPaths := OrderedCollection new.&nbsp; &nbsp; successPath := SolutionPath new.&nbsp; &nbsp; successPath nodes: self nodes copy.&nbsp; &nbsp; successPath nodes add: (SCSolutionNode result: #success probability: (chances at: self nodes size + 1)).&nbsp; &nbsp; newPaths add: successPath.&nbsp; &nbsp; failurePath := SolutionPath new.&nbsp; &nbsp; failurePath nodes: self nodes copy.&nbsp; &nbsp; failurePath nodes add: (SCSolutionNode result: #failure probability: 1 - (chances at: self nodes size + 1)).&nbsp; &nbsp; newPaths add: failurePath.&nbsp; &nbsp; ^newPathsSolutionPath&gt;&gt;failures&nbsp; &nbsp; ^(self nodes select: [:each | each result = #failure]) sizeSolutionPath&gt;&gt;successes&nbsp; &nbsp; ^(self nodes select: [:each | each result = #success]) sizeSolutionPath&gt;&gt;probability&nbsp; &nbsp; ^self nodes inject: 1 into: [ :total :node |&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; total * node probability ][/code][/sblock]The rest of the code is really trivial: accessors most of them.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="sfedi, post: 4988147, member: 15746"] [b]The code[/b] For those who asked, here's the code: The evaluation code, which generates the text I posted: [sblock][code] | calculator result desc | desc := WriteStream on: String new. 1 to: 5 do: [ :complexity | | successes failures maxNumberOfRolls | successes := 2 + (2 * complexity). failures := 3. maxNumberOfRolls := successes + failures. desc cr; cr. desc nextPutAll: 'Success chance for Skill Challenges complexity ', complexity printString, ' (Need ', successes printString, ' successes before ', failures printString, ' failures)'. desc cr; cr. 0.3 to: 0.95 by: 0.05 do: [ :successRate | desc nextPutAll: 'Individual chance '. (successRate * 100) asInteger printOn: desc. desc nextPutAll: '%: '. calculator := SCCalculator failures: failures successes: successes chances: (Array new: maxNumberOfRolls withAll: successRate). result := calculator execute. (result successChance * 100) asInteger printOn: desc. desc nextPutAll: '%'. desc cr. ]. ]. desc contents. [/code][/sblock] Note that it is almost all text formating. The proper calculation is done here: Higher level algorithm methods: [sblock][code] SCCalculator>>execute "Return result of the calculation" | unsolvedPaths solvedPaths | unsolvedPaths := OrderedCollection new. solvedPaths := OrderedCollection new. unsolvedPaths add: SolutionPath new. [unsolvedPaths notEmpty] whileTrue: [| toSolvePaths | toSolvePaths := OrderedCollection new. unsolvedPaths do: [:solutionPath | (self isSolved: solutionPath) ifTrue: [solvedPaths add: solutionPath] ifFalse: [toSolvePaths addAll: (solutionPath nextPathsWithChances: self chances)]]. unsolvedPaths := toSolvePaths]. ^SCSolutionPaths solutionPaths: solvedPaths SCCalculator>>isSolved: aSolutionPath ^(aSolutionPath successes = self successesNeeded) or: [aSolutionPath failures = self maxFailures]. SCSolutionPaths>>successChance ^(self solutionPaths select: [:each | each isResult: #success]) inject: 0 into: [ :total :successPath | total + successPath probability] [/code][/sblock] What this does is to generate "solution paths", that is, a series of successful rolls or failed rolls in several combinations. (a path is solved if it has enough successful rolls or enough failed rolls) It collects all solution paths. It will then ask it's "successChance" and it will sweep all successfull outcomes and sum up their individual probabilities. How an incomplete solution path, gives it's next two solution paths, and some other helper methods: [sblock][code] SolutionPath>>nextPathsWithChances: chances | newPaths successPath failurePath | newPaths := OrderedCollection new. successPath := SolutionPath new. successPath nodes: self nodes copy. successPath nodes add: (SCSolutionNode result: #success probability: (chances at: self nodes size + 1)). newPaths add: successPath. failurePath := SolutionPath new. failurePath nodes: self nodes copy. failurePath nodes add: (SCSolutionNode result: #failure probability: 1 - (chances at: self nodes size + 1)). newPaths add: failurePath. ^newPaths SolutionPath>>failures ^(self nodes select: [:each | each result = #failure]) size SolutionPath>>successes ^(self nodes select: [:each | each result = #success]) size SolutionPath>>probability ^self nodes inject: 1 into: [ :total :node | total * node probability ] [/code][/sblock] The rest of the code is really trivial: accessors most of them. [/QUOTE]

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