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Message: <blockquote data-quote="DPG Darrin" data-source="post: 25662" data-attributes="member: 1002">OK, this is all opinion here, but lets look at the D&D products from previous editions.Crunchy mechanics were all the rage when 2nd edition AD&D was new. Remember the class books that decreased in popularity once they got to the book of Giff? Once the newness of the new rules wore off and the rules were available, the focus shifted to the adventures and then to campaign settings. I think 3rd edition/D20 will be much the same . How many different class books focusing on the same class will people invest their money on? How many different sets of seafaring rules are necessary? I'm guessing that most people will be happy with 1 book delving into a given subject. As long as there is a demand for new materials along these lines they will continue to be produced, but how long will the demand for this type of product remain once all the bases are covered? Once the rules are out of the way, what does that leave?Campaign settingsMonster & magic booksadventuresNote that even though the D20 companies hit the adventures pretty hard at first, their popularity has never gone away, and there has been a steady stream of adventures since the beginning of role playing. I think that the reason for this can be explained as being similar to science. New ules and crunchy bits are like new theories. They're interesting, you want to test them, and in the end they can lead to some very useful things in the game. Adventures, while usually being somewhat low on crunchy bits, are applied theory. It is here that you pull rules, monsters, items, etc. from a number of different sources and mix it all together to come up with something unique that, if used, has a necessary function at the game table.Monsters, spells, and magic will always be popular as long as the new stuff being produced is imaginitive. I personally don't need to see 30 different versions of orcs, but I don't mind seeing new monsters from all CR ranges. I applaud the quality and the creativity of all the monster books I've seen thus far from the D20 industry, starting with the Creature Collection. There's a lot of potential here because you can never have enough new monsters to chellenge your players with. Spells and magic are much the same. The more stuff you can bring to the table that is unrecognizable to the players, the more entertained they will be with the game session. Familliar monsters, while fun, are kind of like warmed over left overs.Campaign settings are an interesting category because you can literally go in any direction you want with these. 2nd edition had Ravenloft for the horror lovers, Darksun for something completely different, Greyhawk revivals for the traditionalists, the Forgotten Realms for the magic heavy games, and many more covering virtually every flavor of game that you can think of. In the D20 market, this could be a great area for new stuff. There's also the potential for non-fantasy settings with the D20 rules. Personally I have and will continue to invest in the Scarred Lands and the Forgotten Realms, but I also picked up and was very impressed with the detail on the Codex Arcanis and (last night I just picked it up) the Codex of Erde. As long as the flavor of the campaign settings is suitably different from one offering to another, I think they will do well and will establish their own fan bases. True, this is a bit of a fracturing of the market, but its not necessarily a bad one. I was thinking last night about how the Codex of Erde seems more 1st edition (from the writing style to the paper to the orange spine with the black letters and Gygax's name appearing on the cover of the book) than other settings. Necromancer Games makes great adventures with a first edition feel. I can't think of any reason that I wouldn't want to set the Necromancer adventures in the world of Erde!So my predictions on the D20 industry: certain companies have and will continue to prosper by having an established track record for excellence. We'll probably see a number of others either consolidate or fold just because of the sheer number of us right now. There only is so many dollars to go around. Stronger product lines and more recognized names will most likely survive, and some newcomers that do good work will probably survive as well. Companies with products that cover the same areas of the rules over and over will probably not do as well as those with products that attempt to branch out into different areas. That just leaves the question of whether or not the PDF publishers will make it. My answer to that is that we've tested those waters and are going to print.</blockquote>

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