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<blockquote data-quote="Nevvur" data-source="post: 7337771" data-attributes="member: 6783882">It places it firmly in &quot;too nebulous and/or complex to properly quantify&quot; territory. As noted in my short treatise above (really didn't expect it to go that long, but I find the problem engaging and 'fun' to ponder), my process stripped away a lot of the confounding factors you specified would be part of the scenario. Given that most of those factors work against the PCs, any adjustments to those numbers should work in their favor. That is, reduce the DC of converting voters (both decided and undecided), increase the number of undecided voters defaulting to the party's preferred candidate, and/or reduce the undecided voters defaulting to the other guy.Exact numbers? &lt;shrug&gt; What I did was basically create the social challenge equivalent of a combat white room exercise, so any conclusions need to be taken in that same light: interesting, maybe even a little useful, but hardly representative of what can (and probably will) happen when the scenario goes live. Unfortunately, it may be that running the scenario a few times is the only way to fine tune it, but hopefully this discussion has produced figures that will make the PCs choices meaningful rather than result in a foregone conclusion. By the way, do you intend to distribute this as another of your (fabulous) adventure scenarios? I haven't actually run any of them, but have certainly drawn inspiration. Always wanted to do the Mario one. Unfortunately I couldn't get buy in from my players. <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f641.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":(" title="Frown&nbsp; &nbsp; :("&nbsp; data-smilie="3"data-shortname=":(" /></blockquote>

[QUOTE="Nevvur, post: 7337771, member: 6783882"] It places it firmly in "too nebulous and/or complex to properly quantify" territory. As noted in my short treatise above (really didn't expect it to go that long, but I find the problem engaging and 'fun' to ponder), my process stripped away a lot of the confounding factors you specified would be part of the scenario. Given that most of those factors work against the PCs, any adjustments to those numbers should work in their favor. That is, reduce the DC of converting voters (both decided and undecided), increase the number of undecided voters defaulting to the party's preferred candidate, and/or reduce the undecided voters defaulting to the other guy. Exact numbers? <shrug> What I did was basically create the social challenge equivalent of a combat white room exercise, so any conclusions need to be taken in that same light: interesting, maybe even a little useful, but hardly representative of what can (and probably will) happen when the scenario goes live. Unfortunately, it may be that running the scenario a few times is the only way to fine tune it, but hopefully this discussion has produced figures that will make the PCs choices meaningful rather than result in a foregone conclusion. By the way, do you intend to distribute this as another of your (fabulous) adventure scenarios? I haven't actually run any of them, but have certainly drawn inspiration. Always wanted to do the Mario one. Unfortunately I couldn't get buy in from my players. :( [/QUOTE]

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