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Tabletopocalypse Now - GMS' thoughts about the decline in the hobby
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<blockquote data-quote="Morrus" data-source="post: 5357713" data-attributes="member: 1"><p>I can't agree with him. I feel that there are four major flaws in his line of reasoning:</p><p> </p><p>1) He's not mentioning the economy as a whole in his line of thought. Restaurants, pubs, business of all kinds are closing. This doesn't mean people aren't eating, or wearing clothes, or what-have-you. This is not a phenomenon particular to the gaming industry.</p><p> </p><p>2) Small speciality shops are the hardest hit by the Amazons and the Walmarts of the world. I've lost count of the umber of small grocery stores, butchers, bakers, etc. near me which have closed down due to competition with the increasing dominance of supermarkets. Small businesses closing down isn't an indicator that a industry is shrinking, it means it's consolidating.</p><p> </p><p>3) Just because #5 on a list sold 3000 units doesn't mean you can conclude that #1 sold 3005 units. #4 on the list may have sold 50,000 units. We don't know.</p><p> </p><p>4) ICV2s figures are not reliable. They are based on a sample of interviews only, not an any actual sales figures.</p><p> </p><p>In my opinion, GMS' conclusions aren't backed up by his evidence or reasoning. I'm not saying that the market <em>isn't </em>shrinking - frankly, I don't know - but GMS' evidence is shaky, and his reasoning unsound, in my opinion. Based solely on the evidence he cites, I can't reach the same conclusion as he does. If he has any further information, of course, I'd be happy to read it.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Morrus, post: 5357713, member: 1"] I can't agree with him. I feel that there are four major flaws in his line of reasoning: 1) He's not mentioning the economy as a whole in his line of thought. Restaurants, pubs, business of all kinds are closing. This doesn't mean people aren't eating, or wearing clothes, or what-have-you. This is not a phenomenon particular to the gaming industry. 2) Small speciality shops are the hardest hit by the Amazons and the Walmarts of the world. I've lost count of the umber of small grocery stores, butchers, bakers, etc. near me which have closed down due to competition with the increasing dominance of supermarkets. Small businesses closing down isn't an indicator that a industry is shrinking, it means it's consolidating. 3) Just because #5 on a list sold 3000 units doesn't mean you can conclude that #1 sold 3005 units. #4 on the list may have sold 50,000 units. We don't know. 4) ICV2s figures are not reliable. They are based on a sample of interviews only, not an any actual sales figures. In my opinion, GMS' conclusions aren't backed up by his evidence or reasoning. I'm not saying that the market [I]isn't [/I]shrinking - frankly, I don't know - but GMS' evidence is shaky, and his reasoning unsound, in my opinion. Based solely on the evidence he cites, I can't reach the same conclusion as he does. If he has any further information, of course, I'd be happy to read it. [/QUOTE]
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