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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Herremann the Wise" data-source="post: 5719585" data-attributes="member: 11300">The mathematics here is not as simple as you present. Your mathematics is ignoring the 50% chance each round that you neither strike nor save (see below). In 3e: the chance of an unassisted PC in the negatives surviving is generally less than 1% (with great variation depending upon how far in the negatives they are.) Most people don't realise there are three sets of hoops an unassisted character must jump through, each at 10% otherwise the character keeps losing hit points at varying time intervals, even after they are stabilised. This is the basis for my statements regarding 3e, negatives and the probability of dying (see upthread for greater details).In 4e: You have a 45% chance of getting a strike (not fifty/fifty), you have a 50% chance of staying in the "dying" state or a 5% chance of saving. You are dead upon the third strike. What this produces is an interesting set of probabilities in terms of surviving.*Chance of surviving with no strikes: 10%*Chance of surviving with 1 strike: 9%*Chance of surviving with 2 strikes: 8.1%Therefore the chance of surviving unassisted in 4e is 27.1% [Which is slightly different to what I thought Hussar quoted earlier actually. I'll check and re-edit if there is a problem with my mathematics and excel fu]Thus I stand by my comments that going from a probability of less than 1% to just over 27% is a hyper-boost in terms of survival without assistance.*The first requires the summation of an infinite geometric series while the second two require a little understanding of binomial probability (senior high school mathematics) but that is certainly not everyone's cup of tea.That's cool, sorry for not formally using the correct term in this regard. Still, the unconscious state is a dominant subset and feature of the dying state so I hope my informal use of it has caused no confusion.If however, you are saying this because you have your 4e defender shields up rather than your EN World discussion goggles on, then please no friendly fire heh. I have been a 4e player/DM since it came out, and have been a DDI subscriber since they offered the subscription. I feel I am allowed to criticize elements of the ruleset as I am any previous ruleset. There is a difference between being critical of features of the ruleset and being critical of the people playing it or how they play it and the obvious enjoyment they derive from it. The latter ones I have zero interest in. The former is why I love discussing such things on EN World. Best RegardsHerremann the Wise</blockquote>

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