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<blockquote data-quote="Alzrius" data-source="post: 6256306" data-attributes="member: 8461">Which isn't a helpful point to make, as there was no way of predicting that this would happen, for which diseases, how effective they'd be, etc.&quot;Most of the time&quot; in this context means exactly what it sounds like, particularly when applied to timeline as well as the question of whether they exist or not. The previous generation thought we'd be living like the Jetsons by now, or that we'd all have rocket packs and be taking meetings on the Moon. Fossil fuels use was graphed to end right at the turn of the millenium. Nuclear war with the Soviets was once at the proverbial &quot;two minutes to midnight,&quot; etc.You seem to be saying that any model for what happens to humanity needs to take into context major changes. Can you offer any sort of model for what changes will happen, when they'll happen, and what their major effects will be? (Hint: the correct answer is &quot;no.&quot;) Hence why the more rational approach is to leave these assumptions out of models that do try to estimate changes to the systems that we can see and measure now.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Alzrius, post: 6256306, member: 8461"] Which isn't a helpful point to make, as there was no way of predicting that this would happen, for which diseases, how effective they'd be, etc. "Most of the time" in this context means exactly what it sounds like, particularly when applied to timeline as well as the question of whether they exist or not. The previous generation thought we'd be living like the Jetsons by now, or that we'd all have rocket packs and be taking meetings on the Moon. Fossil fuels use was graphed to end right at the turn of the millenium. Nuclear war with the Soviets was once at the proverbial "two minutes to midnight," etc. You seem to be saying that any model for what happens to humanity needs to take into context major changes. Can you offer any sort of model for what changes will happen, when they'll happen, and what their major effects will be? (Hint: the correct answer is "no.") Hence why the more rational approach is to leave these assumptions out of models that do try to estimate changes to the systems that we can see and measure [i]now[/i]. [/QUOTE]

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