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<blockquote data-quote="mamba" data-source="post: 9377496" data-attributes="member: 7034611"><p>you won't get useful answers for either. I think it is too early for an actual 6e edition, 5e is still selling much to well to abandon it for an incompatible 6e, and if you have to stay compatible, there are limits to how far you can change the game.</p><p></p><p>You will need to distinguish several groups here</p><p></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">people moving to the 2024 books</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">people staying with the 2014 books</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">people that are playing 5e now but are abandoning it because they want something fresh and 2024 is not it</li> </ul><p></p><p>The first group is maybe 3/4 of the player base (and by that I mean buy 2024 and use it exclusively or mix and match with 2014). Much of the rest will stay with the 2014 books and not jump ship. That last quarter will still be served by new WotC adventures etc. because 2014 and 2024 are compatible.</p><p></p><p>And from here on it becomes purely hypothetical.... there is no way of knowing the percentage switching over to a true 6e, esp. since we have no idea what that 6e would actually look like.</p><p></p><p>If we go with the past results, I'd say you are lucky if 50% switch over (1e to 2e, 3e to 4e mostly). Assuming we take this baseline, then we have</p><p></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Update of 5e: 75% upgrade, most of the rest stays in the 5e system</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">True 6e release: 50% switch over, the other 50% are lost to the 6e system, you just halved your market</li> </ul></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="mamba, post: 9377496, member: 7034611"] you won't get useful answers for either. I think it is too early for an actual 6e edition, 5e is still selling much to well to abandon it for an incompatible 6e, and if you have to stay compatible, there are limits to how far you can change the game. You will need to distinguish several groups here [LIST] [*]people moving to the 2024 books [*]people staying with the 2014 books [*]people that are playing 5e now but are abandoning it because they want something fresh and 2024 is not it [/LIST] The first group is maybe 3/4 of the player base (and by that I mean buy 2024 and use it exclusively or mix and match with 2014). Much of the rest will stay with the 2014 books and not jump ship. That last quarter will still be served by new WotC adventures etc. because 2014 and 2024 are compatible. And from here on it becomes purely hypothetical.... there is no way of knowing the percentage switching over to a true 6e, esp. since we have no idea what that 6e would actually look like. If we go with the past results, I'd say you are lucky if 50% switch over (1e to 2e, 3e to 4e mostly). Assuming we take this baseline, then we have [LIST] [*]Update of 5e: 75% upgrade, most of the rest stays in the 5e system [*]True 6e release: 50% switch over, the other 50% are lost to the 6e system, you just halved your market [/LIST] [/QUOTE]
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