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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Wulf Ratbane" data-source="post: 2084569" data-attributes="member: 94">It looks like a conjunction caused by LOTS of rounding offs in different places and looking at lots of "estimates" provided by various numbers used in various ways:1) It's rounding off in the power to EL equation on both sides (party and opponent)2) It's really rounding off when it takes the Chi/Rho survival ratio (in your example 20.88%) and then tries to stick a text label on it (Moderate, Difficult, etc.) Looking just at power, the CR12 creature is not quite twice the party's power (144 vs. 91). So it's rounding off what is actually closer to EL +2.The most accurate computation would be Chi/Rho-- a straight ratio, no logarithms, nothing rounded off. You should feel the most confident in that 20.88% survival estimate.Wulf</blockquote>