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General Tabletop Discussion
*Dungeons & Dragons
The Crab Bucket Fallacy
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<blockquote data-quote="SteveC" data-source="post: 9149468" data-attributes="member: 9053"><p>Good question. It was WotC itself that described an even chance as being 65%, so I see this as being too high DC. The other point is that you're basically assuming near the best case scenario as a 50% chance. That's going to only be worse with characters closer to the norm.</p><p></p><p>And outside of feats, you're never going to get any better at skills that are outside of your area of focus. Unless you're gaining proficiency and increasing the ability score, this is never going to get any better.</p><p></p><p>Personally, I think having an easy check at DC 5 means that a character with proficiency and good stat doesn't even need to roll that check (remember, 1s aren't an automatic failure on skill checks). I'm okay with that. A starting character with proficiency and a 16 stat (+5 total bonus) is 80% likely to make an average (DC 10) check, and again, I'm okay with that. </p><p></p><p>If we start to include advantage + guidance for every check, that is something I might want to revisit. Given how D&D works, and how static these numbers are unless it's your specialty, higher chances of success aren't a problem for me. I'm sure others have a different opinion (of course!)</p><p></p><p>My whole point is that if you're only looking at the best characters for DCs, you're making anything less just bad. Maybe that's okay, but D&D is not a fail forward situation, so especially for new DMs, failing a check means you can't do something. And all too often that means you close off adventure options. And unless characters make what I'd call unusual character options in their ASI's, this never gets any better.</p><p></p><p>Now with a system like PbtA where you can have more nuance to check results, I think this is less of an issue. But that's not D&D.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="SteveC, post: 9149468, member: 9053"] Good question. It was WotC itself that described an even chance as being 65%, so I see this as being too high DC. The other point is that you're basically assuming near the best case scenario as a 50% chance. That's going to only be worse with characters closer to the norm. And outside of feats, you're never going to get any better at skills that are outside of your area of focus. Unless you're gaining proficiency and increasing the ability score, this is never going to get any better. Personally, I think having an easy check at DC 5 means that a character with proficiency and good stat doesn't even need to roll that check (remember, 1s aren't an automatic failure on skill checks). I'm okay with that. A starting character with proficiency and a 16 stat (+5 total bonus) is 80% likely to make an average (DC 10) check, and again, I'm okay with that. If we start to include advantage + guidance for every check, that is something I might want to revisit. Given how D&D works, and how static these numbers are unless it's your specialty, higher chances of success aren't a problem for me. I'm sure others have a different opinion (of course!) My whole point is that if you're only looking at the best characters for DCs, you're making anything less just bad. Maybe that's okay, but D&D is not a fail forward situation, so especially for new DMs, failing a check means you can't do something. And all too often that means you close off adventure options. And unless characters make what I'd call unusual character options in their ASI's, this never gets any better. Now with a system like PbtA where you can have more nuance to check results, I think this is less of an issue. But that's not D&D. [/QUOTE]
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