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<blockquote data-quote="Hussar" data-source="post: 7694067" data-attributes="member: 22779"><p>*Warning, Pure Speculation Ahead*</p><p></p><p>Before 5e came out, most of the polls I saw split D&D into about 40% Pathfinder, 40% 3e and 20% 4e. ((Yes, Yes, I know there was more, but, accept a flinch factor of say 10% with those numbers) There was little sense that Pathfinder or 4e managed to draw in large crowds of new players. Again, I'm not saying nobody started with those games, but, I think that overall, the number of current D&D players (in any edition) didn't particularly grow. </p><p></p><p>Then comes 5e and it's a smashing success. It appears to have gobbled up both the 4e and the 3e players. No one even talks about either game very much anymore. Again, I'm sure there are holdouts, but, by and large, 5e managed to hoover up both those groups and probably take a bite out of the Pathfinder chunk as well. Additionally, it appears that 5e is pulling in fair numbers of new (and lapsed) players as well. Either those who have never played before, or those who had gotten out of the hobby years ago (or possibly sat as hold outs for AD&D and OSR games).</p><p></p><p>Now time is passing. 5e is still front and centre of the hobby. New players are quite likely to see 5e first. The widespread Adventurers League play pretty much guarantees that if you walk into a hobby store, you're going to see 5e. And 5e has a much, much lower barrier to entry than Pathfinder. (I hope that's not a contentious point.) Which possibly means that 5e has not only sucked up existing gamers, but is taking the lions share of new gamers as well.</p><p></p><p>Move the timeline forward a few years. If this trend continues, is there anything Pathfinder can do to attract new blood? IMO, they'll probably continue nibbling off of gamers who start with 5e, then want something more crunchy. But, I don't believe that Pathfinder is going to see large growth in the near to mid future (say, next five years or so). </p><p></p><p>I'm not sure if a Pathfinder 2.0 is enough to stop the bleeding.</p><p></p><p>OTOH, does it matter? So long as Pathfinder is replacing players at the same rate that they are losing them, isn't that a win? They can keep doing exactly what they are doing - creating very high quality material for a specific setting - indefinitely. Pathfinder does not have to be the number one selling game to be a success.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Hussar, post: 7694067, member: 22779"] *Warning, Pure Speculation Ahead* Before 5e came out, most of the polls I saw split D&D into about 40% Pathfinder, 40% 3e and 20% 4e. ((Yes, Yes, I know there was more, but, accept a flinch factor of say 10% with those numbers) There was little sense that Pathfinder or 4e managed to draw in large crowds of new players. Again, I'm not saying nobody started with those games, but, I think that overall, the number of current D&D players (in any edition) didn't particularly grow. Then comes 5e and it's a smashing success. It appears to have gobbled up both the 4e and the 3e players. No one even talks about either game very much anymore. Again, I'm sure there are holdouts, but, by and large, 5e managed to hoover up both those groups and probably take a bite out of the Pathfinder chunk as well. Additionally, it appears that 5e is pulling in fair numbers of new (and lapsed) players as well. Either those who have never played before, or those who had gotten out of the hobby years ago (or possibly sat as hold outs for AD&D and OSR games). Now time is passing. 5e is still front and centre of the hobby. New players are quite likely to see 5e first. The widespread Adventurers League play pretty much guarantees that if you walk into a hobby store, you're going to see 5e. And 5e has a much, much lower barrier to entry than Pathfinder. (I hope that's not a contentious point.) Which possibly means that 5e has not only sucked up existing gamers, but is taking the lions share of new gamers as well. Move the timeline forward a few years. If this trend continues, is there anything Pathfinder can do to attract new blood? IMO, they'll probably continue nibbling off of gamers who start with 5e, then want something more crunchy. But, I don't believe that Pathfinder is going to see large growth in the near to mid future (say, next five years or so). I'm not sure if a Pathfinder 2.0 is enough to stop the bleeding. OTOH, does it matter? So long as Pathfinder is replacing players at the same rate that they are losing them, isn't that a win? They can keep doing exactly what they are doing - creating very high quality material for a specific setting - indefinitely. Pathfinder does not have to be the number one selling game to be a success. [/QUOTE]
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