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The Essentials articles are atrocious.
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<blockquote data-quote="fuzzlewump" data-source="post: 4990183" data-attributes="member: 63214"><p>Wait, you just made up numbers. Try flipping a coin. You described a situation where you flipped heads 12 times in a row (rolled an 11 or above 12 times in a row.) Every time you flip it's a 50% chance of one or the other, I agree. That <em>does not mean</em> it's a 50% chance to flip 12 heads in a row. Don't believe me? Try flipping a coin 12 times. If I could see you flip them and give you the coin, I would give you a thousand dollars to see you flip heads 12 times in a row. I'm just that confident that it's not going to happen. How am I so confident? Either it's wizardry or <em><strong>statistics</strong>. </em></p><p></p><p>Imagine you had the choice between a weighted coin and a normal coin. The weighted coin made heads come up more often. Then you flip a normal coin 5 times and the weighted coin 5 times, and the normal coin came up with more heads. Would you <em>really</em> think at that point that the weighted coin is worthless, assuming it was made correctly to come up with heads more often?</p><p></p><p>Since you think that averages don't matter, you might as well use a weapon you aren't proficient with. Who cares about the profiency bonus? It all comes down to the dice roll which for you seems to roll extremely well. Hey, might as well dump your main stat too, who needs it? How about 10's down the line? If you disagree with this sentiment, then you admit to seeing the value of statistics.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="fuzzlewump, post: 4990183, member: 63214"] Wait, you just made up numbers. Try flipping a coin. You described a situation where you flipped heads 12 times in a row (rolled an 11 or above 12 times in a row.) Every time you flip it's a 50% chance of one or the other, I agree. That [I]does not mean[/I] it's a 50% chance to flip 12 heads in a row. Don't believe me? Try flipping a coin 12 times. If I could see you flip them and give you the coin, I would give you a thousand dollars to see you flip heads 12 times in a row. I'm just that confident that it's not going to happen. How am I so confident? Either it's wizardry or [I][B]statistics[/B]. [/I] Imagine you had the choice between a weighted coin and a normal coin. The weighted coin made heads come up more often. Then you flip a normal coin 5 times and the weighted coin 5 times, and the normal coin came up with more heads. Would you [I]really[/I] think at that point that the weighted coin is worthless, assuming it was made correctly to come up with heads more often? Since you think that averages don't matter, you might as well use a weapon you aren't proficient with. Who cares about the profiency bonus? It all comes down to the dice roll which for you seems to roll extremely well. Hey, might as well dump your main stat too, who needs it? How about 10's down the line? If you disagree with this sentiment, then you admit to seeing the value of statistics. [/QUOTE]
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The Essentials articles are atrocious.
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