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The future of edition changes and revisions
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<blockquote data-quote="Mercurius" data-source="post: 8633664" data-attributes="member: 59082"><p>Teasing out a few things...</p><p></p><p>Yes, agreed - but how do you see it impacting future revisions?</p><p></p><p>I agree, and don't think they'll risk that. But two things: One, "100% backwards compatible" means different things to different people, as I said in the OP. Two, to follow along from one, even if they only incorporate stuff from Tasha's and Multiverse, not to mention the tonal changes that have been occurring, we're already essentially at "5.2," so to those for whom "100%" means "5.01," there <em>might </em>be backlash. Or not?</p><p></p><p>As I said elsewhere, I think they'll push the needle as far as they can as far as backwards compatibility is concerned, but it will still end up being something like "5.3" - maybe even "5.4," but definitely shy of "5.5." I think?</p><p></p><p>I actually trust WotC that they'll stop short of doing too much that will split the fan-base, or at least if it happens, it will be minimal. <em>You'll take Volo's from my cold, dead hands! </em></p><p></p><p>And as someone said elsewhere, which is part of what got me wondering about this, the newer cohort might be less <s>picky</s> granular about the rules, so backwards compatibility might be less of an issue to 80-90% of the fan-base.</p><p></p><p>Yes, this is about what I expect: six core products (splats, settings, adventures) and two special/other/luxury ones ala the Dragonlance Battle Game, new starter sets, and maybe a surprise here and there. But 6+2 seems like a nice sweet-spot between minimalism and glut.</p><p></p><p>As I said earlier in this post, those changes are probably already a 5.2. If they keep to that and maybe add or subtract or revise a bit more, that's 5.3ish (I keep oscillating between 5.3 and 5.4 in my mind).</p><p></p><p>But yeah, unless this proves to be a boom, and thus is followed by a crash, we won't see a truly new edition (e.g. 6E) - and presumably that's not for <em>at least </em>five years, and only then if A) there is an impending crash, and B) 50A is poorly received. </p><p></p><p>On one hand, I think it would be foolish not to expect <em>some </em>contraction, but AFAICT, D&D is still expanding. So it is one thing to contract from 30 million players, quite another to contract from 50-100 million. My suspicion is that it will continue to grow for a few years, get another bump in 2024, and then the novelty for some will start to wane, but that it will contract down to a higher plateau than in previous contracts. So rather than a 5 million strong diehard base, it might be 10-15 million - but even then, I don't see that happening until 5+ years from now.</p><p></p><p>(Assuming we survive the next five years relatively intact!)</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>This is something that I meant to highlight in the OP, but forgot: When considering the newer generation, how will they respond to the "new and shiny?" Everyone likes the new and shiny, of course. But there's also the <em>new and novel - </em>meaning, the joy of learning a new version of D&D, which many/most have generally embraced over the decades.</p><p></p><p>I don't think we'll have that answered in 2024, due to it likely being no more than a 5.3-4 revision, but we might get a glimmer of it.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Mercurius, post: 8633664, member: 59082"] Teasing out a few things... Yes, agreed - but how do you see it impacting future revisions? I agree, and don't think they'll risk that. But two things: One, "100% backwards compatible" means different things to different people, as I said in the OP. Two, to follow along from one, even if they only incorporate stuff from Tasha's and Multiverse, not to mention the tonal changes that have been occurring, we're already essentially at "5.2," so to those for whom "100%" means "5.01," there [I]might [/I]be backlash. Or not? As I said elsewhere, I think they'll push the needle as far as they can as far as backwards compatibility is concerned, but it will still end up being something like "5.3" - maybe even "5.4," but definitely shy of "5.5." I think? I actually trust WotC that they'll stop short of doing too much that will split the fan-base, or at least if it happens, it will be minimal. [I]You'll take Volo's from my cold, dead hands! [/I] And as someone said elsewhere, which is part of what got me wondering about this, the newer cohort might be less [S]picky[/S] granular about the rules, so backwards compatibility might be less of an issue to 80-90% of the fan-base. Yes, this is about what I expect: six core products (splats, settings, adventures) and two special/other/luxury ones ala the Dragonlance Battle Game, new starter sets, and maybe a surprise here and there. But 6+2 seems like a nice sweet-spot between minimalism and glut. As I said earlier in this post, those changes are probably already a 5.2. If they keep to that and maybe add or subtract or revise a bit more, that's 5.3ish (I keep oscillating between 5.3 and 5.4 in my mind). But yeah, unless this proves to be a boom, and thus is followed by a crash, we won't see a truly new edition (e.g. 6E) - and presumably that's not for [I]at least [/I]five years, and only then if A) there is an impending crash, and B) 50A is poorly received. On one hand, I think it would be foolish not to expect [I]some [/I]contraction, but AFAICT, D&D is still expanding. So it is one thing to contract from 30 million players, quite another to contract from 50-100 million. My suspicion is that it will continue to grow for a few years, get another bump in 2024, and then the novelty for some will start to wane, but that it will contract down to a higher plateau than in previous contracts. So rather than a 5 million strong diehard base, it might be 10-15 million - but even then, I don't see that happening until 5+ years from now. (Assuming we survive the next five years relatively intact!) This is something that I meant to highlight in the OP, but forgot: When considering the newer generation, how will they respond to the "new and shiny?" Everyone likes the new and shiny, of course. But there's also the [I]new and novel - [/I]meaning, the joy of learning a new version of D&D, which many/most have generally embraced over the decades. I don't think we'll have that answered in 2024, due to it likely being no more than a 5.3-4 revision, but we might get a glimmer of it. [/QUOTE]
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