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*Pathfinder & Starfinder
The Great D&D Schism: The End of an age and the scattering of gamers
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<blockquote data-quote="ccooke" data-source="post: 6249839" data-attributes="member: 6695890"><p>Unification of a playerbase this divided isn't something you can judge at release, though. It's something that can only happen over a long period.</p><p>Success in unification will only come if WotC are prepared to keep pushing 5th edition for a long period:</p><p></p><p>At release, it needs to capture at least a portion of the market.</p><p></p><p>After release, WotC need to actually release the right things to make it a viable ecosystem: They need the basic box to pull in new players. They need adventures, both advanced and simple. They need to release new rules content that enhances the system without overcomplicating it (this is where the modular approach could reap dividends).</p><p></p><p>Long-term, 5e will succeed if it's a vibrant and viable option in the market for a number of years. If it's pulling in new players and the curious, then every time you finish a campaign it'll be an option, gathering more people and content until it can TAKE OVER THE WORLD!!!11!!!</p><p></p><p>Ahem. Sorry.</p><p></p><p>But yeah, I think that's the only viable model for true success with 5e - a long-term investment spread over several years. I think the noises coming out of Wizards right now indicate they get that, too - all this talk about brand awareness and multiple platforms is a long-tail play. If they can make D&D a big enough thing in the public mindset, then they'll make profits from all of these multi-media ventures in the short term. In the long-term, *some* of those people are going to be curious and buy the game, which means they (could) be a customer for many years (and those people keep the idea of D&D in the public eye, too, because hey - it's not exactly a stigma any more). </p><p></p><p>Failure is easy - it could fail to get enough of the market on release to be viable (although I don't believe that will happen).</p><p></p><p>Wizards could fail to bring enough existing, lapsed and new players to it over the first year to 18 months - a failure of marketing and their ability to release good quality new content, really. In that time period, fifth edition needs to be *growing* in the market.</p><p></p><p>And finally, they could fail to stay the course and change plans a few years in. A failure of staying power or (quite possibly) lack of ability to keep producing high quality content. </p><p></p><p>Well. Those are some thoughts, anyway. I have no idea how close this is to their *actual* plan. Not too far, I hope. But either way, there's a lot of room for both success or failure in the market today.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="ccooke, post: 6249839, member: 6695890"] Unification of a playerbase this divided isn't something you can judge at release, though. It's something that can only happen over a long period. Success in unification will only come if WotC are prepared to keep pushing 5th edition for a long period: At release, it needs to capture at least a portion of the market. After release, WotC need to actually release the right things to make it a viable ecosystem: They need the basic box to pull in new players. They need adventures, both advanced and simple. They need to release new rules content that enhances the system without overcomplicating it (this is where the modular approach could reap dividends). Long-term, 5e will succeed if it's a vibrant and viable option in the market for a number of years. If it's pulling in new players and the curious, then every time you finish a campaign it'll be an option, gathering more people and content until it can TAKE OVER THE WORLD!!!11!!! Ahem. Sorry. But yeah, I think that's the only viable model for true success with 5e - a long-term investment spread over several years. I think the noises coming out of Wizards right now indicate they get that, too - all this talk about brand awareness and multiple platforms is a long-tail play. If they can make D&D a big enough thing in the public mindset, then they'll make profits from all of these multi-media ventures in the short term. In the long-term, *some* of those people are going to be curious and buy the game, which means they (could) be a customer for many years (and those people keep the idea of D&D in the public eye, too, because hey - it's not exactly a stigma any more). Failure is easy - it could fail to get enough of the market on release to be viable (although I don't believe that will happen). Wizards could fail to bring enough existing, lapsed and new players to it over the first year to 18 months - a failure of marketing and their ability to release good quality new content, really. In that time period, fifth edition needs to be *growing* in the market. And finally, they could fail to stay the course and change plans a few years in. A failure of staying power or (quite possibly) lack of ability to keep producing high quality content. Well. Those are some thoughts, anyway. I have no idea how close this is to their *actual* plan. Not too far, I hope. But either way, there's a lot of room for both success or failure in the market today. [/QUOTE]
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