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Message: <blockquote data-quote="FrogReaver" data-source="post: 8065536" data-attributes="member: 6795602">That would take redesigning your simulation model to account for them.  You haven't done that.  I mean to myself but I haven't done it yet either.In the HP distribution you provided what are your chances for seeing an average hp of each cr of monster?  I say it distributes hp to much toward the extremely low CR's for level 5 PC's.  But how can we actually discuss this properly without at least working out the answer to the question I proposed just now?  So let's establish the answer to this question so we can talk reasonably and logically about your methods.If I am right and your distribution distributes the hp range too much toward the lower ranges, fixing that will have a big impact on how much overkill damage you are seeing from the sim.  I don't disagree with the high level point that few attacks end an encounter.  I also agree with setting the pc's ability to get to the next enemy at 100% provided there is a next enemy to get to.  How meaningful is breaking the fights into encounters though?  If you assume your fighter gets all the killing blows (as you did in your sim) then the fighter will only have overkill apply to n-1 of the enemies instead of n enemies.Which is to say in 1 enemy encounters the overkill effect is reduced to 0%.In 2 enemy encounters it's reduced to 50% of whatever your sim would have calculated it as.In 3 enemy encounters it's reduced to 67% of whatever your sim would have calculated it as.In 4 enemy encounters it's reduced to 75% of whatever your sim would have calculated it as.I consider 4 enemy encounters to be the average and so I'd estimate the actual overkill effect due to encounter style combat vs your endless simmed encounter to be 75% less.  That's a significant reduction in the effect you are touting and it's not the only reductive effect either.Not fully no.  My position is that overkill has a minimal effect not no effect.  These factors I'm discussing show your simulation estimated the impact of overkill damage to be significantly higher than it actually is.  I'm willing to accept being wrong provided results produced from sound methodology reveal that to be so.  I don't like your sim results because the methodology used in them skewed the results toward the conclusion that the overkill effect is more significant than it actually is.If we can show the sim methodology is biased toward inflating the impact of overkill and you get the same results with actual recorded combats then I'd suggest something is amiss with those results as well.  Possibly small sample size.  Possibly a DM that favors lower CR encounters.  etc.  All I know is that if the assumptions in the sim for ac, hp, etc were accurate enough that you would see a much lower effect of overkill in actual play because the sims numbers are significantly inflated as disucssed above.</blockquote>

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