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The math of GWM/SS
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<blockquote data-quote="Keravath" data-source="post: 7523576" data-attributes="member: 6916036"><p>I recently posted a thread on the math of Advantage and Disadvantage which includes formulas and tables on Advantage, Disadvantage and Elven Accuracy on your chances to hit/save/skill check. For most cases Advantage is the equivalent of +4 to +5. </p><p></p><p><a href="http://www.enworld.org/forum/showthread.php?654979-The-math-of-Advantage-and-Disadvantage" target="_blank">http://www.enworld.org/forum/showthread.php?654979-The-math-of-Advantage-and-Disadvantage</a></p><p></p><p>However, another question that comes up is when is it better to use the -5/+10 feature of the feats Great Weapon Master and Sharpshooter. The challenge with this is that it requires looking at both the chances to hit and the average damage your weapon can do. </p><p></p><p>(Keep in mind these are not "white room analyses" ... the game uses the same math ... unless you feel like you or your dice are either blessed or cursed (which I admit many seem to <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f642.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":)" title="Smile :)" data-smilie="1"data-shortname=":)" /> ) ... the chances to hit and average damage are mathematically defined. They aren't theory crafted or made up. If you need to roll a 10 or more to hit on your d20 then you will make that roll 11/20 times and fail 9/20 on average and that has NOTHING to do with whether we are working it out on a forum or playing the game <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f642.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":)" title="Smile :)" data-smilie="1"data-shortname=":)" /> ). </p><p></p><p>So, how DO we figure out whether it is better to use GWM/SS or not? </p><p></p><p>We find the to hit die roll where the average damage when you roll using GWM/SS (and its -5 to hit and +10 damage) will be greater than the average damage from rolling a straight hit.</p><p></p><p>Average damage = (damage done) * (chance to hit)</p><p></p><p>Damage done = (weapon damage + stat) </p><p></p><p>The higher the damage done, the more you lose if you miss using GWM. As a result, as the base damage goes up, the number where you want to use GWM goes down. </p><p></p><p>The following is a picture illustrating this for a d10 weapon damage +5 stat ... say a glaive or heavy crossbow with 20 str or 20 dex. The axis on the bottom is the number you need to roll TO HIT. This is AC - to hit modifier. So if the AC of your target is 18 and you have a +8 to hit (or if the AC is 15 and you have a +5) ... you need to roll 10 or more ... so you look at the plot (if you have d10+5 weapon) and see the following:</p><p></p><p>If you are attacking normally ... use GWM/SS if you will hit on a 10 or less without it</p><p>If you are attacking with advantage ... use GWM/SS if you will hit on a 12 or less without it</p><p>If you are attacking with elven accuracy ... use GWM/SS if you will hit on a 12 or less without it. </p><p></p><p>[ATTACH]103141[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p></p><p>You can create a picture like this for every combination of weapon damage and stat. However, we can also just tabulate the results. </p><p></p><p>Use GWM/SS when the base required to hit roll without GWM/SS is less than or equal to the following. </p><p></p><p>[TABLE="width: 500"]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD]Weapon Damage[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Normal[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Advantage[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Tri-vantage[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD]d12+5[/TD]</p><p>[TD]10[/TD]</p><p>[TD]11[/TD]</p><p>[TD]12[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD]d12+4[/TD]</p><p>[TD]10[/TD]</p><p>[TD]12[/TD]</p><p>[TD]12[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD]d12+3[/TD]</p><p>[TD]11[/TD]</p><p>[TD]12[/TD]</p><p>[TD]13[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD]d10+5[/TD]</p><p>[TD]10[/TD]</p><p>[TD]12[/TD]</p><p>[TD]12[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD]d10+4[/TD]</p><p>[TD]11[/TD]</p><p>[TD]12[/TD]</p><p>[TD]13[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD]d10+3[/TD]</p><p>[TD]11[/TD]</p><p>[TD]12[/TD]</p><p>[TD]13[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD]d8+5[/TD]</p><p>[TD]11[/TD]</p><p>[TD]12[/TD]</p><p>[TD]13[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD]d8+4[/TD]</p><p>[TD]11[/TD]</p><p>[TD]12[/TD]</p><p>[TD]13[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD]d8+3[/TD]</p><p>[TD]12[/TD]</p><p>[TD]13[/TD]</p><p>[TD]13[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD]d6+5[/TD]</p><p>[TD]11[/TD]</p><p>[TD]12[/TD]</p><p>[TD]13[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD]d6+4[/TD]</p><p>[TD]12[/TD]</p><p>[TD]13[/TD]</p><p>[TD]13[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD]d6+3[/TD]</p><p>[TD]12[/TD]</p><p>[TD]13[/TD]</p><p>[TD]13[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD]2d6+5[/TD]</p><p>[TD]10[/TD]</p><p>[TD]11[/TD]</p><p>[TD]12[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD]2d6+4[/TD]</p><p>[TD]10[/TD]</p><p>[TD]11[/TD]</p><p>[TD]12[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD]2d6+3[/TD]</p><p>[TD]11[/TD]</p><p>[TD]12[/TD]</p><p>[TD]12[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[/TABLE]</p><p></p><p></p><p>IF you need to roll the number in the table OR less in order to hit your target on a d20 with the weapon damage listed THEN the average damage will be higher when using GWM. Keep in mind that you WILL miss more often (obviously) but over time you do more damage. </p><p></p><p>If the target only needs one more hit to go down .. you might not want to use GWM/SS .. that is a judgement call. </p><p></p><p>Also, if you need to roll a 20 to hit ... you might as well use GWM/SS since a 20 always hits anyway. In addition, if you have any sort of advantage and need a 19+ to hit ... it is better to use GWM and go for the crit. </p><p></p><p>General observations: </p><p>- if you need to roll a 10 or less to hit - it is always better to use GWM/SS</p><p>- if you need to roll a 14 or more to hit - it is never better to use GWM/SS</p><p></p><p>When you are close to the target number in the table, the average damage from normal vs GWM are typically close ... so it isn't too far off to use this rule of thumb:</p><p></p><p><strong>normal: if you need to roll 11 or less to hit <strong>(without the -5) </strong>use GWM/SS</strong></p><p><strong>advantage: if you need to roll 12 or less to hit </strong><strong><strong>(without the -5) </strong>use GWM/SS</strong></p><p><strong>tri-vantage: if you need roll 13 or less to hit </strong><strong><strong>(without the -5) </strong>use GWM/SS</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong>When the average weapon damage is large ... bump these down by 1. </strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>If you are doing any additional damage like hex/hunters mark etc ... also bump them down. The more damage the weapon does on a hit the less attractive it is to use GWM/SS (this is why the -5/+10 feature of SS is usually a very bad idea for rogues). </p><p></p><p>Please let me know if I made any obvious mistakes <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f642.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":)" title="Smile :)" data-smilie="1"data-shortname=":)" /></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Keravath, post: 7523576, member: 6916036"] I recently posted a thread on the math of Advantage and Disadvantage which includes formulas and tables on Advantage, Disadvantage and Elven Accuracy on your chances to hit/save/skill check. For most cases Advantage is the equivalent of +4 to +5. [URL]http://www.enworld.org/forum/showthread.php?654979-The-math-of-Advantage-and-Disadvantage[/URL] However, another question that comes up is when is it better to use the -5/+10 feature of the feats Great Weapon Master and Sharpshooter. The challenge with this is that it requires looking at both the chances to hit and the average damage your weapon can do. (Keep in mind these are not "white room analyses" ... the game uses the same math ... unless you feel like you or your dice are either blessed or cursed (which I admit many seem to :) ) ... the chances to hit and average damage are mathematically defined. They aren't theory crafted or made up. If you need to roll a 10 or more to hit on your d20 then you will make that roll 11/20 times and fail 9/20 on average and that has NOTHING to do with whether we are working it out on a forum or playing the game :) ). So, how DO we figure out whether it is better to use GWM/SS or not? We find the to hit die roll where the average damage when you roll using GWM/SS (and its -5 to hit and +10 damage) will be greater than the average damage from rolling a straight hit. Average damage = (damage done) * (chance to hit) Damage done = (weapon damage + stat) The higher the damage done, the more you lose if you miss using GWM. As a result, as the base damage goes up, the number where you want to use GWM goes down. The following is a picture illustrating this for a d10 weapon damage +5 stat ... say a glaive or heavy crossbow with 20 str or 20 dex. The axis on the bottom is the number you need to roll TO HIT. This is AC - to hit modifier. So if the AC of your target is 18 and you have a +8 to hit (or if the AC is 15 and you have a +5) ... you need to roll 10 or more ... so you look at the plot (if you have d10+5 weapon) and see the following: If you are attacking normally ... use GWM/SS if you will hit on a 10 or less without it If you are attacking with advantage ... use GWM/SS if you will hit on a 12 or less without it If you are attacking with elven accuracy ... use GWM/SS if you will hit on a 12 or less without it. [ATTACH=CONFIG]103141._xfImport[/ATTACH] You can create a picture like this for every combination of weapon damage and stat. However, we can also just tabulate the results. Use GWM/SS when the base required to hit roll without GWM/SS is less than or equal to the following. [TABLE="width: 500"] [TR] [TD]Weapon Damage[/TD] [TD]Normal[/TD] [TD]Advantage[/TD] [TD]Tri-vantage[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]d12+5[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]d12+4[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]d12+3[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]d10+5[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]d10+4[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]d10+3[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]d8+5[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]d8+4[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]d8+3[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]d6+5[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]d6+4[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]d6+3[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2d6+5[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2d6+4[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2d6+3[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] IF you need to roll the number in the table OR less in order to hit your target on a d20 with the weapon damage listed THEN the average damage will be higher when using GWM. Keep in mind that you WILL miss more often (obviously) but over time you do more damage. If the target only needs one more hit to go down .. you might not want to use GWM/SS .. that is a judgement call. Also, if you need to roll a 20 to hit ... you might as well use GWM/SS since a 20 always hits anyway. In addition, if you have any sort of advantage and need a 19+ to hit ... it is better to use GWM and go for the crit. General observations: - if you need to roll a 10 or less to hit - it is always better to use GWM/SS - if you need to roll a 14 or more to hit - it is never better to use GWM/SS When you are close to the target number in the table, the average damage from normal vs GWM are typically close ... so it isn't too far off to use this rule of thumb: [B]normal: if you need to roll 11 or less to hit [B](without the -5) [/B]use GWM/SS advantage: if you need to roll 12 or less to hit [/B][B][B](without the -5) [/B]use GWM/SS tri-vantage: if you need roll 13 or less to hit [/B][B][B](without the -5) [/B]use GWM/SS When the average weapon damage is large ... bump these down by 1. [/B] If you are doing any additional damage like hex/hunters mark etc ... also bump them down. The more damage the weapon does on a hit the less attractive it is to use GWM/SS (this is why the -5/+10 feature of SS is usually a very bad idea for rogues). Please let me know if I made any obvious mistakes :) [/QUOTE]
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