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<blockquote data-quote="Ovinomancer" data-source="post: 8219953" data-attributes="member: 16814">Generally analysis is done statistically, not for individual cases.&nbsp; The moment you limit the analysis to a specific number of events, you can't apply the results of the statistics.&nbsp; It's like saying the the mean roll of d6 is 3.5 -- you can't actually roll 3.5.&nbsp; This is a good point and worth remembering.I strongly encourage looking at the assumptions built into statistical models like this OP does.&nbsp; Too often we do math and assume that since math was done it must be right, when, in reality, we've made an assumption in order to do the math.&nbsp; The assumption in most stat models is infinite trials.&nbsp; This is obviously incorrect, but can provide a useful model.&nbsp; Here, the unpacking of the assumption is that the model isn't telling us a single Scorching Ray will kill an average goblin, but that it will do so more often than not.&nbsp; That, on average, over an infinite number of trials, the odds of killing the goblin are better than or equal to 50%</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Ovinomancer, post: 8219953, member: 16814"] Generally analysis is done statistically, not for individual cases. The moment you limit the analysis to a specific number of events, you can't apply the results of the statistics. It's like saying the the mean roll of d6 is 3.5 -- you can't actually roll 3.5. This is a good point and worth remembering. I strongly encourage looking at the assumptions built into statistical models like this OP does. Too often we do math and assume that since math was done it must be right, when, in reality, we've made an assumption in order to do the math. The assumption in most stat models is infinite trials. This is obviously incorrect, but can provide a useful model. Here, the unpacking of the assumption is that the model isn't telling us a single Scorching Ray will kill an average goblin, but that it will do so [I]more often than not[/I]. That, on average, over an infinite number of trials, the odds of killing the goblin are better than or equal to 50% [/QUOTE]

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