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Message: <blockquote data-quote="innerdude" data-source="post: 7613483" data-attributes="member: 85870">Using @<a href="http://www.enworld.org/forum/member.php?u=177" target="_blank">Umbran</a>'s evolution analogy, it feels like the RPG landscape is somewhat solidifying around five or six fairly distinct "genetic pools" in terms of rules systems. These are the ones where when we compare them to games we'll be playing 25 years from now, we'll look back and be able to trace their heritage to a common starting point. 1. D&D 5e is obviously far and away (85%+) the largest genetic pool. If individual players are "species members," at this point I don't think it's hyperbolic in any way to say that D&D 5e is the largest tabletop RPG "gene pool" / ecosystem in the hobby's history. And despite it now being a full 5 years following its release, it still doesn't feel like it's peaked in terms of popularity and economic viability. 5e isn't just a home run, it's a bases-loaded grand slam, followed by a triple, two walks, and another grand slam. Clearly there's going to be some "genus" of the 5e genetic pool in the hobby for 20 years or more. It hasn't fully killed off 1e/OSR, or 3e/Pathfinder, but with each passing year, the holdovers from the prior editions shrink a little farther. I think 5e is now clearly established as its own baseline "core," related to but very much separate and distinct from everything that came before it. What's interesting about this is that the drop off from the #1 to #2 "gene pool" is so massively precipitous, I can't really think of a valid analogy for an actual natural ecosystem. In the natural world, is there a species that dominates 85%+ of its ecosystem while still leaving viable space for other similar forms of life to exist?The one that comes to mind is pigeons in large urban areas. There's no other bird species that has managed to thrive in modern urban conditions quite the same way. The other thought I had was  alligators in Florida and the American South. They are the undisputed, peerless kings of their ecosystem (other than humans, of course). Yes, there's still a few "wild predators" that can coexist in the Florida swamps (bobcats, Florida panthers, etc.), but they are no threat to the alligator's place in the chain. 2. Fate --- Love it or hate it, it can't be denied that it's firmly established itself as a viable alternative to the more "traditional" kinds of play grounded in D&D.3. Powered by the Apocalypse --- I don't know that I would have put this one up this high if it weren't for Blades in the Dark, but BitD is legitimately a groundbreaking "take" on the PbtA core that showed just how much design space there is left for this style of play. 4. Savage Worlds --- The Savage Worlds Adventurer's Edition and RIFTS for Savage Worlds Kickstarters showed that the Savage Worlds core is going to be around for some time to come. I have no hesitation believing that there will be some recognizable form of this rules system still around in 2045. 5. Genesys / Star Wars Narrative Dice System --- There's a fairly clear "gene pool" around this one, but I also happen to think that this particular system may be prone to falling by the wayside. I think an enterprising game developer could take this core and extend it much farther than where it is right now. But I do think that even if it's likely to get significantly refined over the next few years, I think we'll still see some variants/remnants of this in 25 years. 6. Other "non-D&D" brands that systematically align to prior D&D editions. From an evolution standpoint, I'd compare these to maybe something like, the ferret/weasel family. While no single species holds a dominant ecological position, as a group they collectively maintain a successful ecological niche (badgers, wolverines, ferrets, weasels, and otters). Stuff that's going to die out: 1. GURPS --- GURPS 4e is now officially 15 years old. Every possible setting and situational rulebook under the sun exists for it. Yet despite a small blip on the radar with the Dungeon Fantasy Kickstarter two years ago, there's almost nothing to suggest that this is the gaming product people really want anymore. There hasn't been a printing of the core rulebooks in seven or eight years, and there's rumors around various Internet cloakrooms that Steve Jackson Games isn't really champing at the bit to issue re-prints.Of course, there's always going to be that tiny, fractional percentage of die-hards that swear GURPS is the greatest gaming system ever made, but even what little audience GURPS had has shrunk significantly in the past 4-5 years. I think GURPS is essentially at its "evergreen" phase now. Anyone who really wants to get into it can always buy the PDFs or hunt down the books second-hand, but a single 5,000 unit print run of the core books in 2020 or 2021 will be more than enough to satisfy the market over the next decade. 2. White Wolf --- "Man, I had so much fun playing Vampire back in the day. I'll never play it again, but man, it was fun while it lasted." <<<< common refrain shared with me from gaming peers regarding White Wolf / Storyteller. I'm sure there's a small niche out there that are still totally committed to the White Wolf campaign setting / universe, but history has (rightly) not been kind to the actual game system it uses. This may be personal bias on my part---White Wolf games have never been on my radar, even in the '90s at their height of popularity---but there's just no "buzz" in the industry right now for it. The unfortunate handling of some recent source material in Russia has only added to the malaise, and the fact that the IP has bounced between no less than four different companies in the past seven years says something about it.3. Fantasy AGE --- Beyond being the centerpiece of Wil Wheaton's streaming Valkana series on Tabletop, the system has never really gained any meaningful traction in terms of audience. It's going to be the classic victim of being too similar conceptually to D&D, while simultaneously being too different from D&D. It's in a pretty rough spot in the "MAYA" product chain. 4. Pathfinder --- This is probably a controversial take, but to me there's a very, very clear narrative of how this would happen in the next decade. Unless Pathfinder 2e manages to become a runaway hit that none of us expected, the real meat-and-potatoes of this brand is going to remain with the first edition and the veritable mountain of material available for it. Will anyone be shocked if two years from now Paizo basically accepts reality and just starts churning out its massive backstock of adventure paths for 5e, makes a mountain of money in the process, and doesn't seem bothered in the least that its original rule system is now basically "evergreen"? I honestly think Paizo would also be well served to partner with one of the other up-and-coming "species" and diversify the market for its IP.If they released Rise of the Runelords, Crimson Throne, Kingmaker, et. al, for Savage Worlds? OH man . . . I'd be in heaven. That said, because of Pathfinder's roots in the OGL, it's probably going to remain on the market pretty much indefinitely, I just think that much like GURPS, it's going to be increasingly marginalized.</blockquote>

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