Reply to thread

Message

<blockquote data-quote="Ovinomancer" data-source="post: 7618994" data-attributes="member: 16814">Yes, I know what a weighted average is, I'm questioning whether or not what you did actually says what you think it does.&nbsp; I'm still not sure.&nbsp; And, no, I expect that you spending 1 post explaining your methods and intent is not spending 3.&nbsp; It's just the one.&nbsp; Another thing that's interesting is just how much your analysis is dependent on the numbers chosen.&nbsp; For instance, if you go over 8 hps with your numbers, PC2 steps ahead of PC1 across the board.&nbsp; At least until you get to 13 hitpoints, where PC 1 regains the lead.&nbsp; It swaps again at 17.&nbsp; Other numbers cause very different patterns.&nbsp; This is, of course, all using your method of determining average rounds to first kill.&nbsp; I still don't think this is a useful metric, but I'm willing to be persuaded.&nbsp; I think it leaves a lot of information out to look at a very narrow probability curve that isn't very informative.&nbsp; I prefer that 'chance to have killed by x round'.&nbsp; This counts all cases that result in killing and not just those that occur on the given round.I did build an extended calculator for your calculation (the weighted average).&nbsp; It was a bit of a challenge, but I was bored for a bit at work and fiddled with a crude way to represent the probability trees in excel.&nbsp; It makes heavy use of the binom.dist function to both find the odds of r hits in N attacks per round and also to determine the current state of a round (number of previous hits that didn't result in death earlier).&nbsp; It recreates your distributions from the OP and I verified it at another point (9 hp, to be precise).&nbsp; It allows for PC1 to need to make up to 3 attacks to kill and PC2 up to 5.&nbsp; I can expand it further, but don't see the need.&nbsp; It allows you to alter the target hp, damage dealt, and chance to hit.&nbsp; The number of attacks per round are fixed at 1 and 2, respectively, because the needed alterations for accounting for variable attacks is much larger that I wanted to deal with at the time.&nbsp; Although, now that I think about it, it might not be that hard?&nbsp; Hmm.&nbsp; I also have a sheet for my preferred calculation, which shows the same patterns but has different numbers.&nbsp; It's also less cumbersome that your method.&nbsp; Not a lot, but less.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Ovinomancer, post: 7618994, member: 16814"] Yes, I know what a weighted average is, I'm questioning whether or not what you did actually says what you think it does. I'm still not sure. And, no, I expect that you spending 1 post explaining your methods and intent is not spending 3. It's just the one. Another thing that's interesting is just how much your analysis is dependent on the numbers chosen. For instance, if you go over 8 hps with your numbers, PC2 steps ahead of PC1 across the board. At least until you get to 13 hitpoints, where PC 1 regains the lead. It swaps again at 17. Other numbers cause very different patterns. This is, of course, all using your method of determining average rounds to first kill. I still don't think this is a useful metric, but I'm willing to be persuaded. I think it leaves a lot of information out to look at a very narrow probability curve that isn't very informative. I prefer that 'chance to have killed by x round'. This counts all cases that result in killing and not just those that occur on the given round. I did build an extended calculator for your calculation (the weighted average). It was a bit of a challenge, but I was bored for a bit at work and fiddled with a crude way to represent the probability trees in excel. It makes heavy use of the binom.dist function to both find the odds of r hits in N attacks per round and also to determine the current state of a round (number of previous hits that didn't result in death earlier). It recreates your distributions from the OP and I verified it at another point (9 hp, to be precise). It allows for PC1 to need to make up to 3 attacks to kill and PC2 up to 5. I can expand it further, but don't see the need. It allows you to alter the target hp, damage dealt, and chance to hit. The number of attacks per round are fixed at 1 and 2, respectively, because the needed alterations for accounting for variable attacks is much larger that I wanted to deal with at the time. Although, now that I think about it, it might not be that hard? Hmm. I also have a sheet for my preferred calculation, which shows the same patterns but has different numbers. It's also less cumbersome that your method. Not a lot, but less. [/QUOTE]

Verification