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The Quadratic Problem—Speculations on 4e
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<blockquote data-quote="Cheiromancer" data-source="post: 3751668" data-attributes="member: 141"><p>OK, how about we take the Ogre as our benchmark CR 3 brute.</p><p></p><p>Attack: +8, damage: 16 (ranged 9), AC: 16, hp: 29.</p><p></p><p>Actually, let's tweak it a trifle so that the numbers are more regular (I'd like the chance of it hitting itself to be 50%, if possible, and the hit points to be a multiple of its average damage). Would this be a CR 4?</p><p></p><p>Ogre4: Attack: +8, damage: 16 (ranged 8), AC: 19, hp: 32.</p><p></p><p>Is there a plausible build for a 4th level fighter that would beat this 50% of the time? Assuming simultaneous initiative, average damage, etc.? I'm including the ranged attack (it's a javelin) in the stats, under the assumption that a fighter could negate the face to face advantage somehow (a fast archer, say) and thus reduce the ogre's effective power by 50%.</p><p></p><p>[sblock=math error!]Then let's see: at 20th level the fighter would have to be improved enough to handle an Ogre20; or 4 Ogre16's. An Ogre16 is 12 doublings of an Ogre4. Assuming the self-hit percentages provide the base, a "doubling" in AC (or attack) will be +5. Something like this might work:</p><p></p><p>Ogre16: Attack: +23, damage 128 (ranged 64), AC 34, hp: 256</p><p></p><p>edit: because of Lanchester's Square Law, a +2 CR means it has to increase its power fourfold. This critter is only an Ogre10! And actually a +4 to attack isn't quite a doubling- so it is not even that. On the other hand, an Ogre10 is supposed to be a moderate challenge to a 10th level party, not a 10th level character. You'd only need an Ogre6 to moderately challenge a 10th level character.[/sblock]</p><p>Can the 4th level fighter above be advanced to a 20th level fighter who has a 50/50 chance against four of these Ogre16's? Or at least have the same percentage chance as he had against the Ogre4 when he was 4th level. Insofar as these are realistic characters it confirms the exponential power curve... at least for fighters.</p><p></p><p>edit: Actually, I'm not sure about the OgreX numbers. The AC and increase in attack bonuses are really problematic; it'd be easy to say that the "doubling" should be +6 or +7 instead of +5. The weighting between factors is also a big assumption (I assume equal weights between the four factors). If anyone has more plausible numbers, I'd be happy to hear about it!</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Cheiromancer, post: 3751668, member: 141"] OK, how about we take the Ogre as our benchmark CR 3 brute. Attack: +8, damage: 16 (ranged 9), AC: 16, hp: 29. Actually, let's tweak it a trifle so that the numbers are more regular (I'd like the chance of it hitting itself to be 50%, if possible, and the hit points to be a multiple of its average damage). Would this be a CR 4? Ogre4: Attack: +8, damage: 16 (ranged 8), AC: 19, hp: 32. Is there a plausible build for a 4th level fighter that would beat this 50% of the time? Assuming simultaneous initiative, average damage, etc.? I'm including the ranged attack (it's a javelin) in the stats, under the assumption that a fighter could negate the face to face advantage somehow (a fast archer, say) and thus reduce the ogre's effective power by 50%. [sblock=math error!]Then let's see: at 20th level the fighter would have to be improved enough to handle an Ogre20; or 4 Ogre16's. An Ogre16 is 12 doublings of an Ogre4. Assuming the self-hit percentages provide the base, a "doubling" in AC (or attack) will be +5. Something like this might work: Ogre16: Attack: +23, damage 128 (ranged 64), AC 34, hp: 256 edit: because of Lanchester's Square Law, a +2 CR means it has to increase its power fourfold. This critter is only an Ogre10! And actually a +4 to attack isn't quite a doubling- so it is not even that. On the other hand, an Ogre10 is supposed to be a moderate challenge to a 10th level party, not a 10th level character. You'd only need an Ogre6 to moderately challenge a 10th level character.[/sblock] Can the 4th level fighter above be advanced to a 20th level fighter who has a 50/50 chance against four of these Ogre16's? Or at least have the same percentage chance as he had against the Ogre4 when he was 4th level. Insofar as these are realistic characters it confirms the exponential power curve... at least for fighters. edit: Actually, I'm not sure about the OgreX numbers. The AC and increase in attack bonuses are really problematic; it'd be easy to say that the "doubling" should be +6 or +7 instead of +5. The weighting between factors is also a big assumption (I assume equal weights between the four factors). If anyone has more plausible numbers, I'd be happy to hear about it! [/QUOTE]
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