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Message: <blockquote data-quote="mneme" data-source="post: 4264792" data-attributes="member: 59248">Careful Attack vs Twin AttackI think this is obvous, but it's fun working out the math; Kaydrak is right; under nearly all circumstances, Careful Attack is strictly worse than Twin Attack (exception: melee, when you've got a shield).Look at the numbers:ph: probability of hitting with a basic attack.P(hit): Careful Attack: ph+10% (unless you need > 20 to hit, in which case it's worse).             Twin Attack: ph*2-ph = 2ph-ph**2 (chance of 1 hit) + (ph**2) (chance of two hits; something that's much better for a ranger than a rogue, of course, as the second hit doesn't count as much for the rogue).So unless 10% is greater than your chance to hit (ie, you need a 20), Twin Attack is better (FWIW, if you need to roll exactly a 20, CA -is- better; it triples your chance of a hit, which is much better than the chance of rolling two crits (or one crit) with TA.  And yeah, if you need a 21, CA is still better; it means you still have double the chance to hit, but also crit on a 20, so triple "damage".  It's dodgier for a 22 to hit, as going from "hit on a 20" to "crit on a 20" is often not as good as two chances to hit, but not crit on a 20.).  Any attack roll above 22, TA is clearly better as it increases your chance to hit where CA doesn't; any attack roll below 19, and TA is clearly better, as it increases your chance to hit -once- more than the 10% that CA gives you. [this doesn't take into account rerolls, but since those are usually encounter powers; not a big deal].  So, for instance, if you need a 15 to hit, with TA, chance to hit at least once is 12/20-36/400, or 51%, with a 9% chance of hitting twice (and better chance of critting, too; 9.75%, with a .25% chance of a double-crit).  with CA, chance to hit is 40%, and you've still only got a 5% chance to crit.  So in this not-unlikely example, Twin Attack is well over twice as good as Careful Attack is.  (yay! Math!)</blockquote>

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