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<blockquote data-quote="Hussar" data-source="post: 5988452" data-attributes="member: 22779">Ok, I've got a theory.&nbsp; Now, this is totally unsubstantiated, and, AFAIK, completely untestable, so, as theories go, it's pretty much bunk.&nbsp; But, I wonder, in a sort of glassy eyed sort of way, if it might help put things in a bit of perspective.&nbsp; I call it my:Theory of TensThe Theory of Tens states that after each edition change, 10% of the audience of D&amp;D does not change with the new edition.&nbsp; When 1e changed to 2e, 10% of players stuck with 1e.&nbsp; Now, this is a totally made up number and it could be anything.&nbsp; But, just bear with me for a second.That ten per cent stuck with 1e and was, by and large, ignored by the rest of the hobby.&nbsp; It was, after all, only a small minority and could safely be ignored.&nbsp; Then 3e came along, and another 10% dropped away.&nbsp; But, again, we're only talking 20% of the D&amp;D gaming population, so the rest, those who went with 3e, could largely ignore them.&nbsp; Granted, I think that 20% was enough to bootstrap the OSR into existence and start sites like Grognardia and Dragonsfoot.&nbsp; Then 3.5 rolls along and, it's generally considered a new edition.&nbsp; Another 10% drops off.&nbsp; But, again, we're still running with 70% of the D&amp;D gaming population, so 3.5 has enough warm bodies to be pretty successful and move along.&nbsp; But, when 4e hits the streets, now we've lost 40% of the D&amp;D gaming population and suddenly we can't ignore those who have not made the change.&nbsp; They number almost the same as those playing the current edition.&nbsp; It's been a while since I saw any &quot;what are you currently playing&quot; polls at En World, but, when they were around, about 60% were playing 4e with the other 40% playing something else (1e, OSR retroclone, 3e, Pathfinder, etc).&nbsp; I'm just wondering if the reaction to 4e has less to do with the changes to the game than a sort of accretion of resistance that reached a tipping point.&nbsp; If that's true, I wonder what effect 5e will have.&nbsp; Will it shed another 10%?&nbsp; Meaning that it never gains majority popularity right out of the gate?&nbsp; Or will it reverse the trend and draw back sufficient numbers to quiet the nay-sayers with sheer numbers?Just pontificating.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Hussar, post: 5988452, member: 22779"] Ok, I've got a theory. Now, this is totally unsubstantiated, and, AFAIK, completely untestable, so, as theories go, it's pretty much bunk. But, I wonder, in a sort of glassy eyed sort of way, if it might help put things in a bit of perspective. I call it my: [u]Theory of Tens[/u] The Theory of Tens states that after each edition change, 10% of the audience of D&D does not change with the new edition. When 1e changed to 2e, 10% of players stuck with 1e. Now, this is a totally made up number and it could be anything. But, just bear with me for a second. That ten per cent stuck with 1e and was, by and large, ignored by the rest of the hobby. It was, after all, only a small minority and could safely be ignored. Then 3e came along, and another 10% dropped away. But, again, we're only talking 20% of the D&D gaming population, so the rest, those who went with 3e, could largely ignore them. Granted, I think that 20% was enough to bootstrap the OSR into existence and start sites like Grognardia and Dragonsfoot. Then 3.5 rolls along and, it's generally considered a new edition. Another 10% drops off. But, again, we're still running with 70% of the D&D gaming population, so 3.5 has enough warm bodies to be pretty successful and move along. But, when 4e hits the streets, now we've lost 40% of the D&D gaming population and suddenly we can't ignore those who have not made the change. They number almost the same as those playing the current edition. It's been a while since I saw any "what are you currently playing" polls at En World, but, when they were around, about 60% were playing 4e with the other 40% playing something else (1e, OSR retroclone, 3e, Pathfinder, etc). I'm just wondering if the reaction to 4e has less to do with the changes to the game than a sort of accretion of resistance that reached a tipping point. If that's true, I wonder what effect 5e will have. Will it shed another 10%? Meaning that it never gains majority popularity right out of the gate? Or will it reverse the trend and draw back sufficient numbers to quiet the nay-sayers with sheer numbers? Just pontificating. [/QUOTE]

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