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<blockquote data-quote="Sir Brennen" data-source="post: 5988540" data-attributes="member: 553">Not to mention that, by the time 5e rolls around, the population of hold-outs from 1E to 2E (for instance) has lost individuals, as many of those players 1) Have gone ahead and switched editions2) No longer play D&amp;D of any edition (either playing some other RPG system, or stopped playing RPGs all together)Also, that initial population might have gained individuals, either brought in by other players of that edition, or just curious and decide to try it out on their own, or drawing back players of newer editions for nostalgia/preference reasons, or former members of the hold out group lost for the reasons stated above. WotC's re-release of the original 1E books is going to actually contribute to this for 1E, as well as potentially drawing back a few of the individuals lost from that.All in all, I think this thread shows that determining your market and the behavior of the individuals within it takes more than a simple formula. And even if the OP's Theory of Ten holds true for D&amp;D edition changes, it's part of the goal of marketing to understand WHY you have a 10% hold out rate, and what can be done to lower that percentage and/or compensate and grow the market by attracting new players to each new edition. It's as much psychology as it is math.Edit: Since the OP is basing his theory on poll results on ENWorld, I don't think such polls are indicative of the D&amp;D market as a whole, but rather the ENWorld audience. Specifically, either the random people who visited on the day the poll was on page 1 of a forum, or ENWorlders who visit frequently enough to see it. Also, people playing older editions often have strong opinions on why they're doing so, and are probably more likely to respond to such a poll, thus skewing the results.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Sir Brennen, post: 5988540, member: 553"] Not to mention that, by the time 5e rolls around, the population of hold-outs from 1E to 2E (for instance) has lost individuals, as many of those players 1) Have gone ahead and switched editions 2) No longer play D&D of any edition (either playing some other RPG system, or stopped playing RPGs all together) Also, that initial population might have gained individuals, either brought in by other players of that edition, or just curious and decide to try it out on their own, or drawing back players of newer editions for nostalgia/preference reasons, or former members of the hold out group lost for the reasons stated above. WotC's re-release of the original 1E books is going to actually contribute to this for 1E, as well as potentially drawing back a few of the individuals lost from that. All in all, I think this thread shows that determining your market and the behavior of the individuals within it takes more than a simple formula. And even if the OP's Theory of Ten holds true for D&D edition changes, it's part of the goal of marketing to understand WHY you have a 10% hold out rate, and what can be done to lower that percentage and/or compensate and grow the market by attracting new players to each new edition. It's as much psychology as it is math. [b]Edit:[/b] Since the OP is basing his theory on poll results on ENWorld, I don't think such polls are indicative of the D&D market as a whole, but rather the ENWorld audience. Specifically, either the random people who visited on the day the poll was on page 1 of a forum, or ENWorlders who visit frequently enough to see it. Also, people playing older editions often have strong opinions on why they're doing so, and are probably more likely to respond to such a poll, thus skewing the results. [/QUOTE]

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